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Optimal propensity score matching has emerged as one of the most ubiquitous approaches for causal inference studies on observational data; However, outstanding critiques of the statistical properties of propensity score matching have cast…
This paper investigates the application of game-theoretic principles combined with advanced Kalman filtering techniques to enhance maritime target tracking systems. Specifically, the paper presents a two-player, imperfect information,…
A quest for uncovering influence of behaviour on team performance involves understanding individual behaviour, interactions with others and environment, variations across groups, and effects of interventions. Although insights into each of…
We study stochastic static teams with countably infinite number of decision makers, with the goal of obtaining (globally) optimal policies under a decentralized information structure. We present sufficient conditions to connect the concepts…
Continuous-time assessments of game outcomes in sports have become increasingly common in the last decade. In American football, only discrete-time estimates of play value were possible, since the most advanced public football datasets were…
The coordinated and efficient distribution of limited resources by individual decisions is a fundamental, unsolved problem. When individuals compete for road capacities, time, space, money, goods, etc., they normally make decisions based on…
Competitive balance in a football league is extremely important from the perspective of economic growth of the industry. Many researchers have earlier proposed different measures of competitive balance, which are primarily adapted from the…
We discuss the general framework of a stochastic two-player, hybrid differential game, and we apply it to the modelling of a "match race" between two sailing boats, namely a competition in which the goal of both players is to proceed in the…
In trajectory forecasting tasks for traffic, future output trajectories can be computed by advancing the ego vehicle's state with predicted actions according to a kinematics model. By unrolling predicted trajectories via time integration…
We investigate the most popular approaches to the problem of sports betting investment based on modern portfolio theory and the Kelly criterion. We define the problem setting, the formal investment strategies, and review their common…
Estimating ballpark effects and team defense in baseball is challenging because batted-ball outcomes are influenced by multiple factors, including contact quality, ballpark environment, defensive performance, and random variation. In this…
This paper presents a sharp approximation of the density of long runs of a random walk conditioned on its end value or by an average of a function of its summands as their number tends to infinity. In the large deviation range of the…
Understanding neural dynamics is a central topic in machine learning, non-linear physics and neuroscience. However, the dynamics is non-linear, stochastic and particularly non-gradient, i.e., the driving force can not be written as gradient…
In this work we are interested in the mean-field formulation of kinetic models under control actions where the control is formulated through a model predictive control strategy (MPC) with varying horizon. The relation between the (usually…
The outputs of win probability models are often used to evaluate player actions. However, in some sports, such as the popular esport Counter-Strike, there exist important team-level decisions. For example, at the beginning of each round in…
Team sports represent complex phenomena characterized by both spatial and temporal dimensions, making their analysis inherently challenging. In this study, we examine team sports as complex systems, specifically focusing on the tactical…
We analyse a mathematical model of seeding for sports contests with round-robin qualifying tournaments. The standard seeding system based on coefficients measuring the historical performance of the teams is shown to be unfair as it might…
In sports analytics, home field advantage is a robust phenomenon where the home team wins more games than the away team. However, discovering the causal factors behind home field advantage presents unique challenges due to the…
Kiiking is an extreme sport in which athletes alternate between standing and squatting to pump a standing swing till it is inverted and completes a rotation. A minimal model of the sport may be cast in terms of the control of an actively…
Traditional NBA player evaluation metrics are based on scoring differential or some pace-adjusted linear combination of box score statistics like points, rebounds, assists, etc. These measures treat performances with the outcome of the game…