Related papers: Optimal Gaussian Approximation for Multiple Time S…
Several strategies have been developed recently to ensure valid inference after model selection; some of these are easy to compute, while others fare better in terms of inferential power. In this paper, we consider a selective inference…
Bayesian optimisation has gained great popularity as a tool for optimising the parameters of machine learning algorithms and models. Somewhat ironically, setting up the hyper-parameters of Bayesian optimisation methods is notoriously hard.…
Gaussian processes (GPs) provide a probabilistic nonparametric representation of functions in regression, classification, and other problems. Unfortunately, exact learning with GPs is intractable for large datasets. A variety of approximate…
In this paper, we study random subsampling of Gaussian process regression, one of the simplest approximation baselines, from a theoretical perspective. Although subsampling discards a large part of training data, we show provable guarantees…
Gaussian Processes are widely used for regression tasks. A known limitation in the application of Gaussian Processes to regression tasks is that the computation of the solution requires performing a matrix inversion. The solution also…
Gaussian Processes (GPs) are widely employed in control and learning because of their principled treatment of uncertainty. However, tracking uncertainty for iterative, multi-step predictions in general leads to an analytically intractable…
Gaussian Process (GP) models provide a flexible framework for prediction and uncertainty quantification. For most covariance functions, however, exact GP prediction with $n$ points scales as $\mathcal{O}(n^3)$, making it prohibitively…
We study Bayesian inference methods for solving linear inverse problems, focusing on hierarchical formulations where the prior or the likelihood function depend on unspecified hyperparameters. In practice, these hyperparameters are often…
We study parameter estimation in linear Gaussian covariance models, which are $p$-dimensional Gaussian models with linear constraints on the covariance matrix. Maximum likelihood estimation for this class of models leads to a non-convex…
We study the a.s. sample path regularity of Gaussian processes. To this end we relate the path regularity directly to the theory of small deviations. In particular, we show that if the process is $n$-times differentiable then the…
We derive explicit lower and upper bounds for the probability generating functional of a stationary locally stable Gibbs point process, which can be applied to summary statistics like the F function. For pairwise interaction processes we…
An approximation method is presented for probabilistic inference with continuous random variables. These problems can arise in many practical problems, in particular where there are "second order" probabilities. The approximation, based on…
In this paper, we obtain generic bounds on the variances of estimation and prediction errors in time series analysis via an information-theoretic approach. It is seen in general that the error bounds are determined by the conditional…
Gaussian processes (GPs) are a good choice for function approximation as they are flexible, robust to over-fitting, and provide well-calibrated predictive uncertainty. Deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) are multi-layer generalisations of GPs,…
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) can be used for model fitting when the likelihood function is intractable but simulating from the model is feasible. However, even a single evaluation of a complex model may take several hours,…
We establish upper bounds for the expected $p$-th power of the Gaussian-smoothed $p$-Wasserstein distance between a probability measure $\mu$ and the corresponding empirical measure $\mu_N$, whenever $\mu$ has finite $q$-th moment for some…
We study maximum likelihood estimation for spatial generalized linear mixed models with Gaussian process approximations using a stochastic Newton-Raphson algorithm. We consider two Gaussian Process approximations in this context: spectral…
A variational method is discussed, extending the Gaussian effective potential to higher orders. The single variational parameter is replaced by trial unknown two-point functions, with infinite variational parameters to be optimized by the…
We develop and analyze a method for stochastic simulation optimization based on Gaussian process models within a trust-region framework. We focus on settings where the variance of the objective function is large, making accurate estimation…
Bruss's odds theorem \cite{Bruss1} addresses the problem of determining the optimal stopping time for sequences of independent indicator functions. In this note, we derive upper and lower bounds for the success probability under the optimal…