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We propose a new Bayesian strategy for adaptation to smoothness in nonparametric models based on heavy tailed series priors. We illustrate it in a variety of settings, showing in particular that the corresponding Bayesian posterior…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-05-30 Sergios Agapiou , Ismaël Castillo

This paper studies how imprecision in noisy signals attenuates Bayesian updating toward the prior. This phenomenon is well-known under a normal prior and normal noise, where less precise signals yield posterior means closer to the prior…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-09-04 Martin Vaeth

We introduce the Group-R2 decomposition prior, a hierarchical shrinkage prior that extends R2-based priors to structured regression settings with known groups of predictors. By decomposing the prior distribution of the coefficient of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-28 Javier Enrique Aguilar , David Kohns , Aki Vehtari , Paul-Christian Bürkner

We investigate shrinkage priors for constructing Bayesian predictive distributions. It is shown that there exist shrinkage predictive distributions asymptotically dominating Bayesian predictive distributions based on the Jeffreys prior or…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Fumiyasu Komaki

We investigate high-dimensional sparse regression when both the noise and the design matrix exhibit heavy-tailed behavior. Standard algorithms typically fail in this regime, as heavy-tailed covariates distort the empirical risk geometry. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-12 Kaiyuan Zhou , Xiaoyu Zhang , Wenyang Zhang , Di Wang

The subject of tail estimation for randomly censored data from a heavy tailed distribution receives growing attention, motivated by applications for instance in actuarial statistics. The bias of the available estimators of the extreme value…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-05-19 Jan Beirlant , Gaonyalelwe Maribe , Andrehette Verster

In the sparse normal means model, convergence of the Bayesian posterior distribution associated to spike and slab prior distributions is considered. The key sparsity hyperparameter is calibrated via marginal maximum likelihood empirical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-10-17 Ismaël Castillo , Romain Mismer

In this article, we investigate certain asymptotic optimality properties of a very broad class of one-group continuous shrinkage priors for simultaneous estimation and testing of a sparse normal mean vector. Asymptotic optimality of Bayes…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-11-11 Prasenjit Ghosh , Arijit Chakrabarti

In this paper, a sparse signal recovery algorithm using Bayesian linear regression with Cauchy prior (BLRC) is proposed. Utilizing an approximate expectation maximization(AEM) scheme, a systematic hyper-parameter updating strategy is…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-07-24 Jun Li , Ryan Wu , I-Tai Lu , Dongyin Ren

When performing Bayesian data analysis using a general linear mixed model, the resulting posterior density is almost always analytically intractable. However, if proper conditionally conjugate priors are used, there is a simple two-block…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-11-21 Tavis Abrahamsen , James P. Hobert

Consider the problem of estimating a multivariate normal mean with a known variance matrix, which is not necessarily proportional to the identity matrix. The coordinates are shrunk directly in proportion to their variances in Efron and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-05-29 Zhiqiang Tan

We study a seemingly unexpected and relatively less understood overfitting aspect of a fundamental tool in sparse linear modeling - best subset selection, which minimizes the residual sum of squares subject to a constraint on the number of…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-11 Rahul Mazumder , Peter Radchenko , Antoine Dedieu

In existing distributed stochastic optimization studies, it is usually assumed that the gradient noise has a bounded variance. However, recent research shows that the heavy-tailed noise, which allows an unbounded variance, is closer to…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-05-15 Jun Hu , Chao Sun , Bo Chen , Jianzheng Wang , Zheming Wang

In this work, we focus on a variant of the generalized linear model (GLM) called corrupted GLM (CGLM) with heavy-tailed features and responses. To robustify the statistical inference on this model, we propose to apply $\ell_4$-norm…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-21 Ziwei Zhu , Wenjing Zhou

Filtering and smoothing algorithms for linear discrete-time state-space models with skew-t distributed measurement noise are presented. The proposed algorithms improve upon our earlier proposed filter and smoother using the mean field…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2016-03-22 Henri Nurminen , Tohid Ardeshiri , Robert Piche , Fredrik Gustafsson

State-space models are pivotal for dynamic system analysis but often struggle with outlier data that deviates from Gaussian distributions, frequently exhibiting skewness and heavy tails. This paper introduces a robust extension utilizing…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-07-31 Yifan Yu , Shengjie Xiu , Daniel P. Palomar

Sparse linear regression is a fundamental tool in data analysis. However, traditional approaches often fall short when covariates exhibit structure or arise from heterogeneous sources. In biomedical applications, covariates may stem from…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-19 William R. P. Denault

We introduce a new empirical Bayes approach for large-scale multiple linear regression. Our approach combines two key ideas: (i) the use of flexible "adaptive shrinkage" priors, which approximate the nonparametric family of scale mixture of…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-13 Youngseok Kim , Wei Wang , Peter Carbonetto , Matthew Stephens

In the sparse normal means model, coverage of adaptive Bayesian posterior credible sets associated to spike and slab prior distributions is considered. The key sparsity hyperparameter is calibrated via marginal maximum likelihood empirical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-02-05 Ismael Castillo , Botond Szabo

We introduce BLAST, Bayesian Linear regression with Adaptive Shrinkage for Transfer, a Bayesian multi-source transfer learning framework for high-dimensional linear regression. The proposed analytical framework leverages global-local…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-10 Parsa Jamshidian , Donatello Telesca
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