Related papers: Marked point processes and intensity ratios for li…
To accurately quantify landslide hazard in a region of Turkey, we develop new marked point process models within a Bayesian hierarchical framework for the joint prediction of landslide counts and sizes. To accommodate for the dominant role…
Optimal Markov Decision Process policies for problems with finite state and action space are identified through a partial ordering by comparing the value function across states. This is referred to as state-based optimality. This paper…
We develop a new family of marked point processes by focusing the characteristic properties of marked Hawkes processes exclusively to the space of marks, providing the freedom to specify a different model for the occurrence times. This is…
In this note we consider non-stationary cluster point processes and we derive their conditional intensity, i.e. the intensity of the process given the locations of one or more events of the process. We then provide some approximations of…
Targeting a better understanding of credit market dynamics, the authors have studied a stochastic model named the Hawkes process. Describing trades arrival times, this kind of model allows for the capture of self-excitement and mutual…
Consideration is given to the three different analytical methods for the computation of upper bounds for the rate of convergence to the limiting regime of one specific class of (in)homogeneous continuous-time Markov chains. This class is…
We study finite particle systems on the one-dimensional integer lattice, where each particle performs a continuous-time nearest-neighbour random walk, with jump rates intrinsic to each particle, subject to an exclusion interaction which…
We examine the dynamics of the bid and ask queues of a limit order book and their relationship with the intensity of trade arrivals. In particular, we study the probability of price movements and trade arrivals as a function of the quote…
In this paper we introduce two new Hawkes processes, namely, compound and regime-switching compound Hawkes processes, to model the price processes in limit order books. We prove Law of Large Numbers and Functional Central Limit Theorems…
Network data often take the form of repeated interactions between senders and receivers tabulated over time. A primary question to ask of such data is which traits and behaviors are predictive of interaction. To answer this question, a…
We consider the stochastic ranking process with space-time dependent jump rates for the particles. The process is a simplified model of the time evolution of the rankings such as sales ranks at online bookstores. We prove that the joint…
Predictability of behavior has emerged an an important characteristic in many fields including biology, medicine, and marketing. Behavior can be recorded as a sequence of actions performed by an individual over a given time period. This…
We present a Markovian market model driven by a hidden Brownian efficient price. In particular, we extend the queue-reactive model, making its dynamics dependent on the efficient price. Our study focuses on two sub-models: a signal-driven…
Large tick assets, i.e. assets where one tick movement is a significant fraction of the price and bid-ask spread is almost always equal to one tick, display a dynamics in which price changes and spread are strongly coupled. We introduce a…
Evolutions of the trading landscape lead to the capability to exchange the same financial instrument on different venues. Because of liquidity issues, the trading firms split large orders across several trading destinations to optimize…
We consider a pair of correlated processes {Z_n} and {S_n} (two sided), where the former is observable and the later is hidden. The uncertainty in the estimation of Z_n upon its finite past history is H(Z_n|Z_0^{n-1}), and for estimation of…
In this research, we develop a trading strategy for the discrete-time optimal liquidation problem of large order trading with different market microstructures in an illiquid market. In this framework, the flow of orders can be viewed as a…
We propose and study a simple stochastic model for the dynamics of a limit order book, in which arrivals of market order, limit orders and order cancellations are described in terms of a Markovian queueing system. Through its analytical…
We introduce and treat rigorously a new multi-agent model of the continuous double auction or in other words the order book (OB). It is designed to explain collective behaviour of the market when new information affecting the market…
We study a class of Piecewise Deterministic Markov Processes with state space Rd x E where E is a finite set. The continuous component evolves according to a smooth vector field that is switched at the jump times of the discrete coordinate.…