Related papers: Clinical Prediction Models to Predict the Risk of …
Cumulative probability models (CPMs) are a robust alternative to linear models for continuous outcomes. However, they are not feasible for very large datasets due to elevated running time and memory usage, which depend on the sample size,…
Ordinal cumulative probability models (CPMs) -- also known as cumulative link models -- such as the proportional odds regression model are typically used for discrete ordered outcomes, but can accommodate both continuous and mixed…
Multinomial prediction models (MPMs) have a range of potential applications across healthcare where the primary outcome of interest has multiple nominal or ordinal categories. However, the application of MPMs is scarce, which may be due to…
Machine learning models are often used to inform real world risk assessment tasks: predicting consumer default risk, predicting whether a person suffers from a serious illness, or predicting a person's risk to appear in court. Given…
Generalisability and transportability of clinical prediction models (CPMs) refer to their ability to maintain predictive performance when applied to new populations. While CPMs may show good generalisability or transportability to a…
Objectives: Clinical prediction models (CPMs) can inform decision-making concerning treatment initiation. Here, one requires predicted risks assuming that no treatment is given. This is challenging since CPMs are often derived in datasets…
When studying the association between treatment and a clinical outcome, a parametric multivariable model of the conditional outcome expectation is often used to adjust for covariates. The treatment coefficient of the outcome model targets a…
When prospectively developing a new clinical prediction model (CPM), fixed sample size calculations are typically conducted before data collection based on sensible assumptions. But if the assumptions are inaccurate the actual sample size…
Evaluation of clinical prediction models across multiple clusters, whether centers or datasets, is becoming increasingly common. A comprehensive evaluation includes an assessment of the agreement between the estimated risks and the observed…
Prediction models are used amongst others to inform medical decisions on interventions. Typically, individuals with high risks of adverse outcomes are advised to undergo an intervention while those at low risk are advised to refrain from…
Calibration is a vital aspect of the performance of risk prediction models, but research in the context of ordinal outcomes is scarce. This study compared calibration measures for risk models predicting a discrete ordinal outcome, and…
Missing data is a challenge when developing, validating and deploying clinical prediction models (CPMs). Traditionally, decisions concerning missing data handling during CPM development and validation havent accounted for whether…
As language models (LMs) become more capable, it is increasingly important to align them with human preferences. However, the dominant paradigm for training Preference Models (PMs) for that purpose suffers from fundamental limitations, such…
As predictive models -- e.g., from machine learning -- give likely outcomes, they may be used to reason on the effect of an intervention, a causal-inference task. The increasing complexity of health data has opened the door to a plethora of…
Performance monitoring of machine learning (ML)-based risk prediction models in healthcare is complicated by the issue of confounding medical interventions (CMI): when an algorithm predicts a patient to be at high risk for an adverse event,…
Uncertainty quantification of causal effects is crucial for safety-critical applications such as personalized medicine. A powerful approach for this is conformal prediction, which has several practical benefits due to model-agnostic…
Dynamic event prediction, using joint modeling of survival time and longitudinal variables, is extremely useful in personalized medicine. However, the estimation of joint models including many longitudinal markers is still a computational…
The predictiveness curve is a valuable tool for predictive evaluation, risk stratification, and threshold selection in a target population, given a single biomarker or a prediction model. In the presence of competing risks, regression…
In healthcare, patient risk stratification models are often learned using time-series data extracted from electronic health records. When extracting data for a clinical prediction task, several formulations exist, depending on how one…
Randomized trials typically estimate average relative treatment effects, but decisions on the benefit of a treatment are possibly better informed by more individualized predictions of the absolute treatment effect. In case of a binary…