Related papers: Bayesian Hierarchical Methods for Modeling Electri…
Usually, methods evaluating system reliability require engineers to quantify the reliability of each of the system components. For series and parallel systems, there are some options to handle the estimation of each component's reliability.…
Cascading failure studies help assess and enhance the robustness of power systems against severe power outages. Onset time is a critical parameter in the analysis and management of power system stability and reliability, representing the…
This article focuses on the faults of important mechanical components such as pumps, valves, and pipelines in the reactor coolant system, main steam system, condensate system, and main feedwater system of nuclear power plants (NPPs). It…
The flexible loads in power systems, such as interruptible and transferable loads, are critical flexibility resources for mitigating power imbalances. Despite their potential, accurate modeling of these loads is a challenging work and has…
We combine Bayesian networks (BNs) and structural reliability methods (SRMs) to create a new computational framework, termed enhanced Bayesian network (eBN), for reliability and risk analysis of engineering structures and infrastructure.…
We introduce a new compositional framework for generalized variational inference, clarifying the different parts of a model, how they interact, and how they compose. We explain that both exact Bayesian inference and the loss functions…
Testing the validity of probabilistic models containing unmeasured (hidden) variables is shown to be a hard task. We show that the task of testing whether models are structurally incompatible with the data at hand, requires an exponential…
We develop a Bayesian framework for variable selection in linear regression with autocorrelated errors, accommodating lagged covariates and autoregressive structures. This setting occurs in time series applications where responses depend on…
In recent times, neural networks have become a powerful tool for the analysis of complex and abstract data models. However, their introduction intrinsically increases our uncertainty about which features of the analysis are model-related…
Recently, there has been a growing concern about the overload status of the power grid networks, and the increasing possibility of cascading failures. Many researchers have studied these networks to provide design guidelines for more robust…
The increasing frequency of extreme weather events poses significant risks to power distribution systems, leading to widespread outages and severe economic and social consequences. This paper presents a novel simulation framework for…
The safe and reliable operation of complex electromechanical systems in nuclear power plants is crucial for the safe production of nuclear power plants and their nuclear power unit. Therefore, accurate and timely fault diagnosis of nuclear…
Software testing is essential for the reliable development of complex software systems. A key step in software testing is fault localization, which uses test data to pinpoint failure-inducing combinations for further diagnosis. Existing…
In networks of dynamic systems, one challenge is to identify the interconnection structure on the basis of measured signals. Inspired by a Bayesian approach in [1], in this paper, we explore a Bayesian model selection method for identifying…
Natural Disasters like hurricanes, floods or earthquakes can damage power grid devices and create cascading blackouts and islands. The nature of failure propagation and extent of damage is dependent on the structural features of the grid,…
The conventional approach to Bayesian decision-theoretic experiment design involves searching over possible experiments to select a design that maximizes the expected value of a specified utility function. The expectation is over the joint…
Large-scale computing systems today are assembled by numerous computing units for massive computational capability needed to solve problems at scale, which enables failures common events in supercomputing scenarios. Considering the…
Interconnected networks describe the dynamics of important systems in a wide range such as biological systems and electrical power grids. Some important features of these systems were successfully studied and understood through simplified…
We introduce a new microscopic model of the outages in transmission power grids. This model accounts for the automatic response of the grid to load fluctuations that take place on the scale of minutes, when the optimum power flow…
In this study, we present a Bayesian hierarchical framework to model fluid-induced seismicity. The framework is based on a non-homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) with a fluid-induced seismicity rate proportional to the rate of injected…