Related papers: Large and Moderate Deviation Principles for the SI…
An accurate approximate formula of the die-out probability in a SIS epidemic process on a network is proposed. The formula contains only three essential parameters: the largest eigenvalue of the adjacency matrix of the network, the…
In this paper we introduce an agent-based epidemiological model that generalizes the classical SIR model by Kermack and McKendrick. We further provide a multiscale approach to the derivation of a macroscopic counterpart via the mean-field…
We study large deviations of the size of the largest connected component in a general class of inhomogeneous random graphs with iid weights, parametrized so that the degree distribution is regularly varying. We derive a large-deviation…
Epidemic threshold is one of the most important features of the epidemic dynamics. Through a lot of numerical simulations in classic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) and Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) models on various types of…
We performed a thorough sensitivity analysis of the herd immunity threshold for discrete-time SIR compartmental models with a static network structure. We find unexpectedly that these models violate classical intuition which holds that the…
In an important paper, M.E.J. Newman claimed that a general network-based stochastic Susceptible-Infectious-Removed (SIR) epidemic model is isomorphic to a bond percolation model, where the bonds are the edges of the contact network and the…
The use of network theory to model disease propagation on populations introduces important elements of reality to the classical epidemiological models. The use of random geometric graphs (RGG) is one of such network models that allows for…
We establish a large deviation principle for a reflected Poisson driven SDE. Our motivation is to study in a forthcoming paper the problem of exit of such a process from the basin of attraction of a locally stable equilibrium associated…
We study the classic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model for the spread of an infectious disease. In this stochastic process, there are two competing mechanism: infection and recovery. Susceptible individuals may contract the disease…
We obtain tight thresholds for bond percolation on one-dimensional small-world graphs, and apply such results to obtain tight thresholds for the \emph{Independent Cascade} process and the \emph{Reed-Frost} process in such graphs. These are…
The epidemic curve and the final extent of the COVID-19 pandemic are usually predicted from the rate of early exponential raising using the SIR model. These predictions implicitly assume a full social mixing, which is not plausible…
Compartmental models of epidemics are widely used to forecast the effects of communicable diseases such as COVID-19 and to guide policy. Although it has long been known that such processes take place on social networks, the assumption of…
We present a modelling framework for the spreading of epidemics on temporal networks from which both the individual-based and pair-based models can be recovered. The proposed temporal pair-based model that is systematically derived from…
We consider the problem of finding the graph on which an epidemic cascade spreads, given only the times when each node gets infected. While this is a problem of importance in several contexts -- offline and online social networks,…
We are interested in a variation of the SIR (Susceptible/Infected/Recovered) dynamics on the complete graph, in which infected individuals may only spread to neighboring susceptible individuals at fixed rate $\lambda>0$ while recovered…
We study the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) and the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) models of epidemics, with possibly time-varying rates, on a class of networks that are locally tree-like, which includes sparse…
In a series of two papers, we investigate the large deviations and asymptotic behavior of stochastic models of brain neural networks with random interaction coefficients. In this first paper, we take into account the spatial structure of…
In this paper we investigate the asymptotic behavior of some SIR models incorporating demography, bounded random transmission coefficient and a time-dependent vaccination strategy targeting the susceptible population. In this setting, we…
Throughout human history, epidemics have been a constant presence. Understanding their dynamics is essential to predict scenarios and make substantiated decisions. Mathematical models are powerful tools to describe an epidemic behavior.…
We introduce a numerical method to solve epidemic models on the underlying topology of complex networks. The approach exploits the mean-field like rate equations describing the system and allows to work with very large system sizes, where…