Related papers: Large and Moderate Deviation Principles for the SI…
We numerically investigate the dynamics of an SIR model with infection level-based lockdowns on Small-World networks. Using a large-deviation approach, namely the Wang-Landau algorithm, we study the distribution of the cumulative fraction…
The disease spreading on complex networks is studied in SIR model. Simulations on empirical complex networks reveal two specific regimes of disease spreading: local containment and epidemic outbreak. The variables measuring the extent of…
This paper concerns the large deviations of a system of interacting particles on a random graph. There is no stochasticity, and the only sources of disorder are the random graph connections, and the initial condition. The average number of…
Recent work by Erik Volz [arXiv:0705.2092] has shown how to calculate the growth and eventual decay of an SIR epidemic on a static random network, assuming infection and recovery each happen at constant rates. This calculation allows us to…
The purpose of the present paper is to establish moderate deviation principles for a rather general class of random variables fulfilling certain bounds of the cumulants. We apply a celebrated lemma of the theory of large deviations…
The paper describes and compares three approaches to modeling an epidemic spread. The first approach is a well-known system of SIR ordinary differential equations. The second is a mean-field model, in which an isolation strategy for each…
Starting with the large deviation principle (LDP) for the Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi binomial random graph $\mathcal{G}(n,p)$ (edge indicators are i.i.d.), due to Chatterjee and Varadhan (2011), we derive the LDP for the uniform random graph…
We study the diffusion of epidemics on networks that are partitioned into local communities. The gross structure of hierarchical networks of this kind can be described by a quotient graph. The rationale of this approach is that individuals…
We prove a large deviations principle for the total spin and the number of edges under the annealed Ising measure on generalized random graphs. We also give detailed results on how the annealing over the Ising model changes the degrees of…
We consider the emergent behavior of viral spread when agents in a large population interact with each other over a contact network. When the number of agents is large and the contact network is a complete graph, it is well known that the…
Social networks are an important infrastructure for information, viruses and innovations propagation. Since users behavior has influenced by other users activity, some groups of people would be made regard to similarity of users interests.…
We study the SIR ("susceptible, infected, removed/recovered") model on directed graphs with heterogeneous transmission probabilities within the message-passing approximation. We characterize the percolation transition, predict cluster size…
This paper investigates asymptotic behavior of a stochastic SIR epidemic model, which is a system with degenerate diffusion. It gives sufficient conditions that are very close to the necessary conditions for the permanence. In addition,…
We define and study an open stochastic SIR (Susceptible -- Infected -- Removed) model on a graph in order to describe the spread of an epidemic on a cattle trade network with epidemiological and demographic dynamics occurring over the same…
An SIR epidemic model with free boundary is investigated. This model describes the transmission of diseases. The behavior of positive solutions to a reaction-diffusion system in a radially symmetric domain is investigated. The existence and…
We consider an individual-based SIR stochastic epidemic model in continuous space. The evolution of the epidemic involves the rates of infection and cure of individuals. We assume that individuals move randomly on the two-dimensional torus…
Random networks with specified degree distributions have been proposed as realistic models of population structure, yet the problem of dynamically modeling SIR-type epidemics in random networks remains complex. I resolve this dilemma by…
In the simple mean-field SIS and SIR epidemic models, infection is transmitted from infectious to susceptible members of a finite population by independent p-coin tosses. Spatial variants of these models are proposed, in which finite…
A model of reactive social distancing in epidemics is proposed, in which the infection rate changes with the number infected. The final-size equation for the total number that the epidemic will infect can be derived analytically, as can the…
A stochastic SIR epidemic model taking into account the heterogeneity of the spatial environment is constructed. The deterministic model is given by a partial differential equation and the stochastic one by a space-time jump Markov process.…