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Global climate warming poses a significant challenge to humanity; it is associated with, e.g., rising sea level and declining Arctic sea ice. Increasing extreme events are also considered to be a result of climate…

Physics and Society · Physics 2019-01-23 Jingfang Fan , Jun Meng , Yosef Ashkenazy , Shlomo Havlin , Hans Joachim Schellnhuber

Numerical climate models are complex and combine a large number of physical processes. They are key tools in quantifying the relative contribution of potential anthropogenic causes (e.g., the current increase in greenhouse gases) on high…

Applications · Statistics 2020-05-19 Anna Kiriliouk , Philippe Naveau

Two future scenarios that are not explicitly in the range of scenarios (the Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios) utilised by the IPCC. These two scenarios are the emissions trend under peak fossil fuel (for example, Mohr et al.,…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-12-15 L. Mark W. Leggett , David. A. Ball

Was the spread of agropastoralism from the Fertile Crescent throughout Europe influenced by extreme climate events, or was it independent of climate? We here generate idealized climate events using palaeoclimate records. In a mathematical…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2012-11-01 Carsten Lemmen , Kai W. Wirtz

Despite the importance of quantifying how the spatial patterns of extreme precipitation will change with warming, we lack tools to objectively analyze the storm-scale outputs of modern climate models. To address this gap, we develop an…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-12-04 Griffin Mooers , Tom Beucler , Mike Pritchard , Stephan Mandt

Many biological processes, including plant leafout and flowering, occur once cumulative temperatures reach a threshold (the thermal-sum model). In this way, temperatures are thought to coordinate the timing of biological events. But growing…

Applications · Statistics 2026-04-28 Jonathan Auerbach , Andrew Gelman , E. M. Wolkovich

Near-surface extreme winds profoundly affect human society, yet process-based understanding of their changes under climate forcings remains limited. This study systematically investigates the responses of high (HWE) and low (LWE) wind…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-03-05 G. Zhang , M. Rao , I. Simpson , K. A. Reed , B. Medeiros , H. -H. Chou , T. Shaw

Climate change has become a significant global concern due to its capacity to cause substantial disruption to daily life by increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Given the rising trend of human interventions in…

Applications · Statistics 2026-04-28 Ritik Roshan Giri , Arnab Hazra

Most contemporary mortality models rely on extrapolating trends or past events. However, population dynamics will be significantly impacted by climate change, notably the influence of temperatures on mortality. In this paper, we introduce a…

Applications · Statistics 2025-02-04 Quentin Guibert , Gaëlle Pincemin , Frédéric Planchet

Tropical regions may experience periodic extreme precipitation and suffer from associated periodic deluges in a warmer climate. Recent studies conducted small-domain (around 100 km x 100 km) atmospheric model simulations and found that…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-11-26 Heng Quan , Yi Zhang , Guy Dagan , Stephan Fueglistaler

Despite major advances in climate science over the last 30 years, persistent uncertainties in projections of future climate change remain. Climate projections are produced with increasingly complex models which attempt to represent key…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-05-26 Mark S. Williamson , Chad W. Thackeray , Peter M. Cox , Alex Hall , Chris Huntingford , Femke J. M. M. Nijsse

Weather extremes produce major impacts on society and ecosystems and are likely to change in likelihood and magnitude with climate change. However, very low probability events are hard to characterize statistically using observations or…

Applications · Statistics 2026-04-28 Christopher J. Paciorek , Daniel Cooley

We built a model of the daily temperature based on a diffusion process and address to extreme values not taken into account in the literature on this kind of models. We first study, using non parametric tools, the trends on mean and…

Applications · Statistics 2008-12-18 Gregory Benmenzer , Didier Dacunha-Castelle , T. T. Huong Hoang

One of the most used metrics to gauge the effects of climate change is the equilibrium climate sensitivity, defined as the long-term (equilibrium) temperature increase resulting from instantaneous doubling of atmospheric CO$_2$. Since…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-02-04 Robbin Bastiaansen , Henk A. Dijkstra , Anna S. von der Heydt

The provision of accurate methods for predicting the climate response to anthropogenic and natural forcings is a key contemporary scientific challenge. Using a simplified and efficient open-source general circulation model of the atmosphere…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2016-05-25 Valerio Lucarini , Frank Lunkeit , Francesco Ragone

Extreme events, such as rogue waves, earthquakes and stock market crashes, occur spontaneously in many dynamical systems. Because of their usually adverse consequences, quantification, prediction and mitigation of extreme events are highly…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2018-03-19 Mohammad Farazmand , Themistoklis P. Sapsis

Reliably identifying and understanding temporal precursors to extreme wind gusts is crucial for early warning and mitigation. This study proposes a simple data-driven approach to extract key predictors from a dataset of historical extreme…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-01-14 Frederick Iat-Hin Tam , Fabien Augsburger , Tom Beucler

Precise and reliable climate projections are required for climate adaptation and mitigation, but Earth system models still exhibit great uncertainties. Several approaches have been developed to reduce the spread of climate projections and…

Humans interact with each other on a daily basis by developing and maintaining various social norms and it is critical to form a deeper understanding of how such norms develop, how they change, and how fast they change. In this work, we…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2018-07-03 Soham De , Dana S. Nau , Xinyue Pan , Michele J. Gelfand

The impact of hot weather on health outcomes of a population is mediated by a variety of factors, including its age profile and local green infrastructure. The combination of warming due to climate change and demographic aging suggests that…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2024-05-02 Hannah Schuster , Axel Polleres , Amin Anjomshoaa , Johannes Wachs