Related papers: Shifting velocity of temperature extremes under cl…
We propose a non-steady state model of the global temperature change. The model describes Earth's surface temperature dynamics under main climate forcing. The equations were derived from basic physical relationships and detailed assessment…
The recent discovery of long term growth constants in the accumulation of atmospheric CO2, confirmed by two methods, enables analog methods for dating the beginning of climate change at ~1780 and projecting its near term future. Here we…
The analysis of extremes in climate models is hindered by the lack of statistics due to the computational costs required to run simulations long enough to sample rare events. We demonstrate how rare event algorithms can improve the…
The 10-minute average wind speed series recorded at 132 stations distributed rather homogeneously in the territory of Switzerland are investigated. Wind extremes are defined on the base of run theory: fixing a percentile-based threshold of…
One of the goals of climate science is to characterize the statistics of extreme and potentially dangerous events in the present and future climate. Extreme events like heat waves, droughts, or floods due to persisting rains are…
Driven by the increasing frequency and intensity of natural disasters and chronic climate threats, we investigate the impact of physical climate risk on global equity portfolios. By employing a panel regression analysis on sectoral returns,…
Extreme climate events, e.g., droughts, floods, heat waves, and freezes, are becoming more frequent and intense with severe global socio-economic impacts. Growing populations and economic activity leads to increased exposure to these…
Studying extreme events and how they evolve in a changing climate is one of the most important current scientific challenges. Starting from complex climate models, a key difficulty is to be able to run long enough simulations in order to…
Extreme precipitation events with large spatial extents may have more severe impacts than localized events as they can lead to widespread flooding. It is debated how climate change may affect the spatial extent of precipitation extremes,…
Extreme weather is one of the main mechanisms through which climate change will directly impact human society. Coping with such change as a global community requires markedly improved understanding of how global warming drives extreme…
Recent analyses indicate that the amount of atmospheric CO2 required to cause dangerous climate change is at most 450 ppm, and likely less than that. Reductions of non-CO2 climate forcings can provide only moderate, albeit important,…
When extreme weather events affect large areas, their regional to sub-continental spatial scale is important for their impacts. We propose a novel machine learning (ML) framework that integrates spatial extreme-value theory to model weather…
Extreme events provide relevant insights into the dynamics of climate and their understanding is key for mitigating the impact of climate variability and climate change. By applying large deviation theory to a state-of-the-art Earth system…
The occurrence of extreme events like heavy precipitation or storms at a certain location often shows a clustering behaviour and is thus not described well by a Poisson process. We construct a general model for the inter-exceedance times in…
Previously derived "global" thermodynamic speed limit theorems state that increasing the maximum speed with which a system can evolve between two given probability distributions over its states requires the system to produce more entropy in…
Supercell thunderstorms are the most hazardous thunderstorm category and particularly impactful to society. Their monitoring is challenging and often confined to the radar networks of single countries. By exploiting kilometer-scale climate…
Efforts to reduce climate change, but also falling prices and significant technology developments currently drive an increased weather-dependent electricity production from renewable electricity sources. In light of the changing climate, it…
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key component of the climate system and considered to be a tipping element. There is still a large uncertainty on the critical global warming level at which the AMOC will start to…
We develop a three-timescale framework for modelling climate change and introduce a space-heterogeneous one-dimensional energy balance model. This model, addressing temperature fluctuations from rising carbon dioxide levels and the…
Extreme precipitation shows non-stationary behavior over time, but also with respect to other large-scale variables. While this effect is often neglected, we propose a model including the influence of North Atlantic Oscillation, time,…