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Related papers: Distributional synthetic controls

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In this paper, we address the challenge of performing counterfactual inference with observational data via Bayesian nonparametric regression adjustment, with a focus on high-dimensional settings featuring multiple actions and multiple…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-22 Alberto Caron , Gianluca Baio , Ioanna Manolopoulou

The classical concept of inequality curves and measures is extended to conditional inequality curves and measures and a curve of conditional inequality measures is introduced. This extension provides a more nuanced analysis of inequality in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-04-23 Alicja Jokiel-Rokita , Sylwester Piątek , Rafał Topolnicki

A common statistical problem in econometrics is to estimate the impact of a treatment on a treated unit given a control sample with untreated outcomes. Here we develop a generative learning approach to this problem, learning the probability…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-10-17 Chirag Modi , Uros Seljak

The proximal causal inference framework enables the identification and estimation of causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding by leveraging two disjoint sets of observed strong proxies: negative control treatments and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-16 Antonio Olivas-Martinez , Peter B. Gilbert , Andrea Rotnitzky

Explicit finite-sample statistical guarantees on model performance are an important ingredient in responsible machine learning. Previous work has focused mainly on bounding either the expected loss of a predictor or the probability that an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-07 Zhun Deng , Thomas P. Zollo , Jake C. Snell , Toniann Pitassi , Richard Zemel

The capacity to address counterfactual "what if" inquiries is crucial for understanding and making use of causal influences. Traditional counterfactual inference, under Pearls' counterfactual framework, typically depends on having access to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-29 Shaoan Xie , Biwei Huang , Bin Gu , Tongliang Liu , Kun Zhang

The synthetic control method offers a way to quantify the effect of an intervention using weighted averages of untreated units to approximate the counterfactual outcome that the treated unit(s) would have experienced in the absence of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-12 Matias D. Cattaneo , Yingjie Feng , Filippo Palomba , Rocio Titiunik

We study counterfactual regression, which aims to map input features to outcomes under hypothetical scenarios that differ from those observed in the data. This is particularly useful for decision-making when adapting to sudden shifts in…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-08 Kwangho Kim

This paper develops an empirical balancing approach for the estimation of treatment effects under two-sided noncompliance using a binary conditionally independent instrumental variable. The method weighs both treatment and outcome…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-07-10 Phillip Heiler

In causal inference, the joint law of a set of counterfactual random variables is generally not identified. We show that a conservative version of the joint law - corresponding to the smallest treatment effect - is identified. Finding this…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-20 Sivaraman Balakrishnan , Edward Kennedy , Larry Wasserman

The finite sample variance of an inverse propensity weighted estimator is derived in the case of discrete control variables with finite support. The obtained expressions generally corroborate widely-cited asymptotic theory showing that…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-19 Andrew Herren , P. Richard Hahn

We introduce the inclusive synthetic control method (iSCM), a modification of synthetic control methods that includes units in the donor pool potentially affected, directly or indirectly, by an intervention. This method is ideal for…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-11-15 Roberta Di Stefano , Giovanni Mellace

In many observational studies, researchers are often interested in studying the effects of multiple exposures on a single outcome. Standard approaches for high-dimensional data such as the lasso assume the associations between the exposures…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-06 Dingke Tang , Dehan Kong , Linbo Wang

A coefficient is introduced that quantifies the extent of separation of a random variable $Y$ relative to a number of variables $\mathbf{X} = (X_1, \dots, X_p)$ by skillfully assessing the sensitivity of the relative effects of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-27 Sebastian Fuchs , Carsten Limbach , Patrick B. Langthaler

In this paper we study methods for estimating causal effects in settings with panel data, where some units are exposed to a treatment during some periods and the goal is estimating counterfactual (untreated) outcomes for the treated…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-04-22 Susan Athey , Mohsen Bayati , Nikolay Doudchenko , Guido Imbens , Khashayar Khosravi

Counterfactual explanation is one branch of interpretable machine learning that produces a perturbation sample to change the model's original decision. The generated samples can act as a recommendation for end-users to achieve their desired…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-28 Tri Dung Duong , Qian Li , Guandong Xu

Counterfactual inference is a powerful tool, capable of solving challenging problems in high-profile sectors. To perform counterfactual inference, one requires knowledge of the underlying causal mechanisms. However, causal mechanisms cannot…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-23 Athanasios Vlontzos , Bernhard Kainz , Ciaran M. Gilligan-Lee

This paper investigates the problem of bounding counterfactual queries from an arbitrary collection of observational and experimental distributions and qualitative knowledge about the underlying data-generating model represented in the form…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-10-13 Junzhe Zhang , Jin Tian , Elias Bareinboim

We propose dual regression as an alternative to the quantile regression process for the global estimation of conditional distribution functions under minimal assumptions. Dual regression provides all the interpretational power of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-26 Richard Spady , Sami Stouli

We study the problem of deriving policies, or rules, that when enacted on a complex system, cause a desired outcome. Absent the ability to perform controlled experiments, such rules have to be inferred from past observations of the system's…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-09 Kailash Budhathoki , Mario Boley , Jilles Vreeken