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Inferring cause-effect relationships from observational data has gained significant attention in recent years, but most methods are limited to scalar random variables. In many important domains, including neuroscience, psychology, social…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-06 Konstantin Göbler , Tobias Windisch , Mathias Drton

Causality is important for designing interpretable and robust methods in artificial intelligence research. We propose a local approach to identify whether a variable is a cause of a given target under the framework of causal graphical…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-08 Zhuangyan Fang , Yue Liu , Zhi Geng , Shengyu Zhu , Yangbo He

Causal discovery is a fundamental problem with applications spanning various areas in science and engineering. It is well understood that solely using observational data, one can only orient the causal graph up to its Markov equivalence…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-29 Zihan Zhou , Muhammad Qasim Elahi , Murat Kocaoglu

Estimating causal effects is crucial for decision-makers in many applications, but it is particularly challenging with observational network data due to peer interactions. Many algorithms have been proposed to estimate causal effects…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-09-16 Xiaojing Du , Jiuyong Li , Debo Cheng , Lin Liu , Wentao Gao , Xiongren Chen

We consider continuous-time survival or more general event-history settings, where the aim is to infer the causal effect of a time-dependent treatment process. This is formalised as the effect on the outcome event of a (possibly…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-23 Kjetil Røysland , Pål Ryalen , Mari Nygård , Vanessa Didelez

Identifying causal relationships from observational time series data is a key problem in disciplines such as climate science or neuroscience, where experiments are often not possible. Data-driven causal inference is challenging since…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-12-03 Jakob Runge , Peer Nowack , Marlene Kretschmer , Seth Flaxman , Dino Sejdinovic

Classical machine learning techniques often struggle with overfitting and unreliable predictions when exposed to novel conditions. Introducing causality into the modelling process offers a promising way to mitigate these challenges by…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2025-05-28 David Zapata Gonzalez , Marcel Meyer , Oliver Mueller

Interacting systems are prevalent in nature. It is challenging to accurately predict the dynamics of the system if its constituent components are analyzed independently. We develop a graph-based model that unveils the systemic interactions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-31 Giangiacomo Mercatali , Andre Freitas , Jie Chen

In this paper, we introduce a novel class of graphical models for representing time lag specific causal relationships and independencies of multivariate time series with unobserved confounders. We completely characterize these graphs and…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-06 Andreas Gerhardus

In this paper, we propose REASON, a novel framework that enables the automatic discovery of both intra-level (i.e., within-network) and inter-level (i.e., across-network) causal relationships for root cause localization. REASON consists of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-07 Dongjie Wang , Zhengzhang Chen , Jingchao Ni , Liang Tong , Zheng Wang , Yanjie Fu , Haifeng Chen

Graphical causal models are an important tool for knowledge discovery because they can represent both the causal relations between variables and the multivariate probability distributions over the data. Once learned, causal graphs can be…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-04-11 Andrew J Sedgewick , Joseph D. Ramsey , Peter Spirtes , Clark Glymour , Panayiotis V. Benos

We study the problem of causal effect identification from observational distribution given the causal graph and some context-specific independence (CSI) relations. It was recently shown that this problem is NP-hard, and while a sound…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-18 Ehsan Mokhtarian , Fateme Jamshidi , Jalal Etesami , Negar Kiyavash

The present study explores the intricacies of causal relationship extraction, a vital component in the pursuit of causality knowledge. Causality is frequently intertwined with temporal elements, as the progression from cause to effect is…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-04-24 Xiaosong Yuan , Ke Chen , Wanli Zuo , Yijia Zhang

Recovering a unique causal graph from observational data is an ill-posed problem because multiple generating mechanisms can lead to the same observational distribution. This problem becomes solvable only by exploiting specific structural or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-09 Ameya Rathod , Sujay Belsare , Salvik Krishna Nautiyal , Dhruv Laad , Ponnurangam Kumaraguru

In this note we explore a fully unsupervised deep-learning framework for simulating non-linear structural equation models from observational training data. The main contribution of this note is an architecture for applying moment-matching…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-28 Michael Park

Local causal discovery is of great practical significance, as there are often situations where the discovery of the global causal structure is unnecessary, and the interest lies solely on a single target variable. Most existing local…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-25 Haoyue Dai , Ignavier Ng , Yujia Zheng , Zhengqing Gao , Kun Zhang

Modeling inter-dependencies between time-series is the key to achieve high performance in anomaly detection for multivariate time-series data. The de-facto solution to model the dependencies is to feed the data into a recurrent neural…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-17 Yuhang Wu , Mengting Gu , Lan Wang , Yusan Lin , Fei Wang , Hao Yang

We address the problem of estimating causal effects from observational data in the presence of network confounding, a setting where both treatment assignment and observed outcomes of individuals may be influenced by their neighbors within a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-24 Abhishek Dalvi , Neil Ashtekar , Vasant Honavar

This paper investigates causal influences between agents linked by a social graph and interacting over time. In particular, the work examines the dynamics of social learning models and distributed decision-making protocols, and derives…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2026-05-19 Mert Kayaalp , Ali H. Sayed

Various graphical models are widely used in reliability to provide a qualitative description of domain experts hypotheses about how a system might fail. Here we argue that the semantics developed within standard causal Bayesian networks are…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-10-05 Xuewen Yu , Jim Q. Smith