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A fundamental problem associated with the task of network reconstruction from dynamical or behavioral data consists in determining the most appropriate model complexity in a manner that prevents overfitting, and produces an inferred network…
A number of recent contributions have put forward the topological structure of production networks as a key determinant of macro-economic dynamics. However, firm-to-firm production networks data is generally not available. Against this…
Using the secured transactions recorded within the Money Markets Statistical Reporting database of the European Central Bank, we test several stylized facts regarding interbank market of the 47 largest banks in the eurozone. We observe that…
This paper introduces a formulation of the optimal network compression problem for financial systems. This general formulation is presented for different levels of network compression or rerouting allowed from the initial interbank network.…
There is a large consensus on the fundamental role of firm-level supply chain networks in macroeconomics. However, data on supply chains at the fine-grained, firm level are scarce and frequently incomplete. For listed firms, some commercial…
In the past years statistical physics has been successfully applied for complex networks modelling. In particular, it has been shown that the maximum entropy principle can be exploited in order to construct graph ensembles for real-world…
Financial networks are typically estimated by applying standard time series analyses to price-based economic variables collected at low-frequency (e.g., daily or monthly stock returns or realized volatility). These networks are used for…
We use the exponential random graph models to understand the network structure and its generative process for the Japanese bipartite network of banks and firms. One of the well known and simple model of exponential random graph is the…
We present a method for the reconstruction of networks, based on the order of nodes visited by a stochastic branching process. Our algorithm reconstructs a network of minimal size that ensures consistency with the data. Crucially, we show…
Banks in the interbank network can not assess the true risks associated with lending to other banks in the network, unless they have full information on the riskiness of all the other banks. These risks can be estimated by using network…
The DebtRank algorithm has been increasingly investigated as a method to estimate the impact of shocks in financial networks, as it overcomes the limitations of the traditional default-cascade approaches. Here we formulate a dynamical…
This mini-project models propagation of shocks, in time point, through links in connected banks. In particular, financial network of 100 banks out of which 15 are shocked to default (that is, 85.00% of the banks are solvent) is modelled…
A plethora of methods have been developed in the past two decades to infer the underlying network structure of an interconnected system from its collective dynamics. However, methods capable of inferring nonpairwise interactions are only…
Since the 2007-2009 financial crisis, substantial academic effort has been dedicated to improving our understanding of interbank lending networks (ILNs). Because of data limitations or by choice, the literature largely lacks multiple loan…
The insufficient understanding of the credit network structure was recognized as a key factor for regulators' underestimation of the destructive systematic risk during the financial crisis that started in 2007. The existing credit network…
Interbank markets are often characterised in terms of a core-periphery network structure, with a highly interconnected core of banks holding the market together, and a periphery of banks connected mostly to the core but not internally. This…
We construct a network of 1.6 million nodes from banking transactions of users of Rabobank. We assign two weights on each edge, which are the aggregate transferred amount and the total number of transactions between the users from the year…
We test the hypothesis that interconnections across financial institutions can be explained by a diversification motive. This idea stems from the empirical evidence of the existence of long-term exposures that cannot be explained by a…
Most national economies are linked by international trade. Consequently, economic globalization forms a massive and complex economic network with strong links, that is, interactions arising from increasing trade. Various interesting…
Understanding the structural complexity and predictability of complex networks is a central challenge in network science. Although recent studies have revealed a relationship between compression-based entropy and link prediction…