Related papers: Asymptotics for the sum of three state Markov depe…
In this work we investigate the optimal proportional reinsurance-investment strategy of an insurance company which wishes to maximize the expected exponential utility of its terminal wealth in a finite time horizon. Our goal is to extend…
Rate change calculations in the literature involve deterministic methods that measure the change in premium for a given policy. The definition of rate change as a statistical parameter is proposed to address the stochastic nature of the…
The paper is concerned with the equilibrium distribution $\Pi_n$ of the $n$-th element in a sequence of continuous-time density dependent Markov processes on the integers. Under a $(2+\a)$-th moment condition on the jump distributions, we…
The analysis of multiple time-to-event outcomes in a randomised controlled clinical trial can be accomplished with exisiting methods. However, depending on the characteristics of the disease under investigation and the circumstances in…
Markov chains play a key role in a vast number of areas, including life insurance mathematics. Standard actuarial quantities as the premium value can be interpreted as compressed, lossy information about the underlying Markov process. We…
We consider Markov decision processes (MDPs) in which the transition probabilities and rewards belong to an uncertainty set parametrized by a collection of random variables. The probability distributions for these random parameters are…
A general method to construct recombinant tree approximations for stochastic volatility models is developed and applied to the Heston model for stock price dynamics. In this application, the resulting approximation is a four tuple Markov…
In the current insurance literature, prediction of insurance claims in the regression problem is often performed with a statistical model. This model-based approach may potentially suffer from several drawbacks: (i) model misspecification,…
We study the rate of convergence of the Markov chain on $S_n$ which starts with a random $(n-k)$-cycle for a fixed $k \geq 1$, followed by random transpositions. The convergence to the stationary distribution turns out to be of order $n$.…
This paper concerns an insurance firm's surplus process observed at renewal inspection times, with a focus on assessing the probability of the surplus level dropping below zero. For various types of inter-inspection time distributions, an…
The paper develops new methods of non-parametric estimation a compound Poisson distribution. Such a problem arise, in particular, in the inference of a Levy process recorded at equidistant time intervals. Our key estimator is based on…
In this paper, we study the averaging principle and central limit theorem for multi-scale stochastic differential equations with state-dependent switching. To accomplish this, we first study the Poisson equation associated with a Markov…
We consider the problem of evaluating the performance of a decision policy using past observational data. The outcome of a policy is measured in terms of a loss (aka. disutility or negative reward) and the main problem is making valid…
In this paper, we develop a method to model and estimate several, _dependent_ count processes, using granular data. Specifically, we develop a multivariate Cox process with shot noise intensities to jointly model the arrival process of…
We study properties of a piecewise deterministic Markov process modeling the changes in concentration of specific antibodies. The evolution of densities of the process is described by a stochastic semigroup. The long-time behaviour of this…
Markov cohort state-transition models have been the standard approach for simulating the prognosis of patients or, more generally, the life trajectories of individuals over a time period. Current approaches for estimating the variance of a…
We study time-uniform statistical inference for parameters in stochastic approximation (SA), which encompasses a bunch of applications in optimization and machine learning. To that end, we analyze the almost-sure convergence rates of the…
Autoregressive models enable tractable sampling from learned probability distributions, but their performance critically depends on the variable ordering used in the factorization via complexities of the resulting conditional distributions.…
Given a sequence of i.i.d. random functions $\Psi_{n}:\mathbb{R}\to\mathbb{R}$, $n\in\mathbb{N}$, we consider the iterated function system and Markov chain which is recursively defined by $X_{0}^{x}:=x$ and…
A new four-parameter model called the Marshall-Olkin extended generalized Gompertz distribution is introduced. Its hazard rate function can be constant, increasing, decreasing, upside-down bathtub or bathtub-shaped depending on its…