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Most machine learning techniques are based upon statistical learning theory, often simplified for the sake of computing speed. This paper is focused on the uncertainty aspect of mathematical modeling in machine learning. Regression analysis…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-07 Valentin Arkov

This paper examines the effectiveness of several forecasting methods for predicting inflation, focusing on aggregating disaggregated forecasts - also known in the literature as the bottom-up approach. Taking the Brazilian case as an…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-08-23 Gilberto Boaretto , Marcelo C. Medeiros

We describe an exercise of using Big Data to predict the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, a widely used indicator of the state of confidence in the US economy. We carry out the exercise from a pure ex ante perspective. We use the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2014-05-23 Rickard Nyman , Paul Ormerod

Climate projections using data driven machine learning models acting as emulators, is one of the prevailing areas of research to enable policy makers make informed decisions. Use of machine learning emulators as surrogates for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-24 Anmol Chaure , Ashok Kumar Behera , Sudip Bhattacharya

Background: Reliable prediction of clinical progression over time can improve the outcomes of depression. Little work has been done integrating various risk factors for depression, to determine the combinations of factors with the greatest…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-07-06 Runa Bhaumik , Jonathan Stange

Big data and machine learning methods have become commonplace across economic milieus. One area that has not seen as much attention to these important topics yet is efficiency analysis. We show how the availability of big (wide) data can…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-05-21 Christopher Parmeter , Artem Prokhorov , Valentin Zelenyuk

Modeling and predicting extreme movements in GDP is notoriously difficult and the selection of appropriate covariates and/or possible forms of nonlinearities are key in obtaining precise forecasts. In this paper, our focus is on using large…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-09-25 Jan Prüser , Florian Huber

Due to the steadily increasing relevance of machine learning for practical applications, many of which are coming with safety requirements, the notion of uncertainty has received increasing attention in machine learning research in the last…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-01-06 Mohammad Hossein Shaker , Eyke Hüllermeier

Accurate short-term energy consumption forecasting is essential for efficient power grid management, resource allocation, and market stability. Traditional time-series models often fail to capture the complex, non-linear dependencies and…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2026-01-27 Abhishek Maity , Viraj Tukarul

We consider the problem of power demand forecasting in residential micro-grids. Several approaches using ARMA models, support vector machines, and recurrent neural networks that perform one-step ahead predictions have been proposed in the…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2017-06-30 Riccardo Bonetto , Michele Rossi

In the dynamic landscape of continuous change, Machine Learning (ML) "nowcasting" models offer a distinct advantage for informed decision-making in both public and private sectors. This study introduces ML-based GDP growth projection models…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-02-07 Juan Tenorio , Wilder Perez

Logistic Regression and Support Vector Machine algorithms, together with Linear and Non-Linear Deep Neural Networks, are applied to lending data in order to replicate lender acceptance of loans and predict the likelihood of default of…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2019-07-04 Jeremy D. Turiel , Tomaso Aste

Time series forecasting is ubiquitous in the modern world. Applications range from health care to astronomy, and include climate modelling, financial trading and monitoring of critical engineering equipment. To offer value over this range…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-10-26 Bernardo Pérez Orozco , Gabriele Abbati , Stephen Roberts

In this contribution, we exploit machine learning techniques to evaluate whether and how close firms are to becoming successful exporters. First, we train and test various algorithms using financial information on both exporters and…

General Economics · Economics 2024-07-11 Francesca Micocci , Armando Rungi

Recurrent neural networks are used to forecast time series in finance, climate, language, and from many other domains. Reservoir computers are a particularly easily trainable form of recurrent neural network. Recently, a "next-generation"…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-28 Sarah E. Marzen , Paul M. Riechers , James P. Crutchfield

Regression models for supervised learning problems with a continuous target are commonly understood as models for the conditional mean of the target given predictors. This notion is simple and therefore appealing for interpretation and…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-01-09 Torsten Hothorn , Achim Zeileis

Deep forest is a non-differentiable deep model which has achieved impressive empirical success across a wide variety of applications, especially on categorical/symbolic or mixed modeling tasks. Many of the application fields prefer…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-02 Yi-Xiao He , Shen-Huan Lyu , Yuan Jiang

For the assessment of the financial soundness of a pension fund, it is necessary to take into account mortality forecasting so that longevity risk is consistently incorporated into future cash flows. In this article, we employ machine…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-09 Eduardo Fraga L. de Melo , Helton Graziadei , Rodrigo Targino

This systematic review examines how machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) have transformed forecasting, decision-making, and financial modelling, promoting innovation and efficiency in financial systems. Following PRISMA 2020…

General Mathematics · Mathematics 2026-01-26 Soufiane El Amine El Alami , Abderazzak Mouiha , Abdelatif Hafid , Ahmed El Hilali Alaoui

In this research paper, I have applied various econometric time series and two machine learning models to forecast the daily data on the yield spread. First, I decomposed the yield curve into its principal components, then simulated various…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-09-14 Sudiksha Joshi