Related papers: Confidence and discoveries with e-values
Quantifying uncertainty in detected changepoints is an important problem. However it is challenging as the naive approach would use the data twice, first to detect the changes, and then to test them. This will bias the test, and can lead to…
We develop a technique to improve the power of any e-value by a simple randomization involving one independent uniform random variable. Using this framework, we show that two procedures for false discovery rate (FDR) control -- the…
Hypothesis tests and confidence intervals are ubiquitous in empirical research, yet their connection to subsequent decision-making is often unclear. We develop a theory of certified decisions that pairs recommended decisions with…
We explicitly define the notions of (bona fide, approximate or asymptotic) compound p-values and e-values, which have been implicitly presented and used in the recent multiple testing literature. While it is known that the e-BH procedure…
It is widely acknowledged that the biomedical literature suffer from a surfeit of false positive results. Part of the reason for this is the persistence of the myth that observation of a p value less than 0.05 is sufficient justification to…
Bayesian hypothesis testing via Bayes factors offers a principled alternative to classical p-value methods in meta-analysis, particularly suited to its cumulative and sequential nature. Unlike commonly reported p-values for standard null…
E-values have gained prominence as flexible tools for statistical inference and risk control, enabling anytime- and post-hoc-valid procedures under minimal assumptions. However, many real-world applications fundamentally rely on sensitive…
A/B tests are typically analyzed via frequentist p-values and confidence intervals; but these inferences are wholly unreliable if users endogenously choose samples sizes by *continuously monitoring* their tests. We define *always valid*…
There is a useful counterpart of conformal prediction for e-values, called conformal e-prediction. Conformal prediction can serve as basis for testing the assumption of exchangeability, leading to conformal testing. Similarly, conformal…
In the context of multiple hypotheses testing, the proportion $\pi_0$ of true null hypotheses in the pool of hypotheses to test often plays a crucial role, although it is generally unknown a priori. A testing procedure using an implicit or…
Selective inference is a subfield of statistics that enables valid inference after selection of a data-dependent question. In this paper, we introduce selectively dominant p-values, a class of p-values that allow practitioners to easily…
This article extends the hypotheses assessment method to the case with two competing simple hypotheses. In doing so we further clarify the benefits that hypotheses assessments can bring to classical statistical analyses. Given that…
Analysis of credibility is a reverse-Bayes technique that has been proposed by Matthews (2001) to overcome some of the shortcomings of significance tests. A significant result is deemed credible if current knowledge about the effect size is…
The literature on hypothesis testing with data-dependent and post-hoc significance levels relies on a particular extension of the Type-I error to data-dependent levels. Existing arguments for this extension are heuristic, and primarily…
The e-BH procedure is an e-value-based multiple testing procedure that provably controls the false discovery rate (FDR) under any dependence structure between the e-values. Despite this appealing theoretical FDR control guarantee, the e-BH…
This paper discusses a counterpart of conformal prediction for e-values, conformal e-prediction. Conformal e-prediction is conceptually simpler and had been developed in the 1990s as a precursor of conformal prediction. When conformal…
The customary use of P-values in scientific research has been attacked as being ill-conceived, and the utility of P-values has been derided. This paper reviews common misconceptions about P-values and their alleged deficits as indices of…
This article gives a survey of the e-value, a statistical significance measure a.k.a. the evidence rendered by observational data, X, in support of a statistical hypothesis, H, or, the other way around, the epistemic value of H given X. The…
Much of science is (rightly or wrongly) driven by hypothesis testing. Even in situations where the hypothesis testing paradigm is correct, the common practice of basing inferences solely on p-values has been under intense criticism for over…
It is quite common in modern research, for a researcher to test many hypotheses. The statistical (frequentist) hypothesis testing framework, does not scale with the number of hypotheses in the sense that naively performing many hypothesis…