Related papers: Variable Length Markov Chain with Exogenous Covari…
We prove an invariance principle for non-stationary random processes and establish a rate of convergence under a new type of mixing condition. The dependence is exponentially decaying in the gap between the past and the future and is…
A discrete time stochastic model for a multiagent system given in terms of a large collection of interacting Markov chains is studied. The evolution of the interacting particles is described through a time inhomogeneous transition…
We develop a model for credit rating migration that accounts for the impact of economic state fluctuations on default probabilities. The joint process for the economic state and the rating is modelled as a time-homogeneous Markov chain.…
We consider a family of Markov chains whose transition dynamics are affected by model parameters. Understanding the parametric dependence of (complex) performance measures of such Markov chains is often of significant interest. The…
We propose a new Bayesian Markov switching regression model for multidimensional arrays (tensors) of binary time series. We assume a zero-inflated logit regression with time-varying parameters and apply it to multilayer temporal networks.…
The probabilistic description of the time evolution of a physical system can take two conceptually distinct forms: a trajectory of probabilities, which specifies how probabilities evolve over time, and a probability on trajectories, which…
In this work, we consider a finite-state inhomogeneous-time Markov chain whose probabilities of transition from one state to another tend to decrease over time. This can be seen as a cooling of the dynamics of an underlying Markov chain. We…
In this article we propose a novel method to estimate the frequency distribution of linguistic variables while controlling for statistical non-independence due to shared ancestry. Unlike previous approaches, our technique uses all available…
We consider a discrete latent variable model for two-way data arrays, which allows one to simultaneously produce clusters along one of the data dimensions (e.g. exchangeable observational units or features) and contiguous groups, or…
Markov chains are a natural and well understood tool for describing one-dimensional patterns in time or space. We show how to infer $k$-th order Markov chains, for arbitrary $k$, from finite data by applying Bayesian methods to both…
A nonhomogeneous hidden semi-Markov model is proposed to segment toroidal time series according to a finite number of latent regimes and, simultaneously, estimate the influence of time-varying covariates on the process' survival under each…
We study the properties of a subclass of stochastic processes called discrete time nonlinear Markov chains with an aggregator, which naturally appear in various topics such as strategic queueing systems, inventory dynamics, opinion…
Biological neural networks are notoriously hard to model due to their stochastic behavior and high dimensionality. We tackle this problem by constructing a dynamical model of both the expectations and covariances of the fractions of active…
For a stochastic system, its evolution from one state to another can have a large number of possible paths. Non-uniformity in the field of system variables leads the local dynamics in state transition varies considerably from path to path…
The influence of a time-periodic forcing on stochastic processes can essentially be emphasized in the large time behaviour of their paths. The statistics of transition in a simple Markov chain model permits to quantify this influence. In…
A variety of enhanced statistical and numerical methods are now routinely used to extract comprehensible and relevant thermodynamic information from the vast amount of complex, high-dimensional data obtained from intensive molecular…
Dynamic linear regression models forecast the values of a time series based on a linear combination of a set of exogenous time series while incorporating a time series process for the error term. This error process is often assumed to…
A discrete time branching process where the offspring distribution is generation-dependent, and the number of reproductive individuals is controlled by a random mechanism is considered. This model is a Markov chain but, in general, the…
The stochastic growth-fragmentation model describes the temporal evolution of a structured cell population through a discrete-time and continuous-state Markov chain. The simulations of this stochastic process and its invariant measure are…
Large deviation results are given for a class of perturbed nonhomogeneous Markov chains on finite state space which formally includes some stochastic optimization algorithms. Specifically, let {P_n} be a sequence of transition matrices on a…