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Researchers have proposed several approaches for neural network (NN) based uncertainty quantification (UQ). However, most of the approaches are developed considering strong assumptions. Uncertainty quantification algorithms often perform…

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is important for reliability assessment and enhancement of machine learning models. In deep learning, uncertainties arise not only from data, but also from the training procedure that often injects…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-11-13 Ziyi Huang , Henry Lam , Haofeng Zhang

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in scientific machine learning is increasingly critical as neural networks are widely adopted to tackle complex problems across diverse scientific disciplines. For physics-informed neural networks (PINNs), a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-20 Frank Shih , Zhenghao Jiang , Faming Liang

We propose a network architecture capable of reliably estimating uncertainty of regression based predictions without sacrificing accuracy. The current state-of-the-art uncertainty algorithms either fall short of achieving prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-22 Kinjal Patel , Steven Waslander

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in wind speed forecasting is a critical challenge in wind power production due to the inherently volatile nature of wind. By quantifying the associated risks and returns, UQ supports more effective…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-27 Pritam Anand , Aadesh Minz , Asish Joel

This paper considers the generation of prediction intervals (PIs) by neural networks for quantifying uncertainty in regression tasks. It is axiomatic that high-quality PIs should be as narrow as possible, whilst capturing a specified…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-04-10 Tim Pearce , Mohamed Zaki , Alexandra Brintrup , Andy Neely

Neural networks (NNs) are currently changing the computational paradigm on how to combine data with mathematical laws in physics and engineering in a profound way, tackling challenging inverse and ill-posed problems not solvable with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-08 Apostolos F Psaros , Xuhui Meng , Zongren Zou , Ling Guo , George Em Karniadakis

Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) are gaining popularity as a method for solving differential equations. While being more feasible in some contexts than the classical numerical techniques, PINNs still lack credibility. A remedy for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-15 Olga Graf , Pablo Flores , Pavlos Protopapas , Karim Pichara

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have achieved tremendous success in computer vision, natural language processing, and scientific and engineering domains. However, DNNs can make unexpected, incorrect, yet overconfident predictions, leading to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-16 Wenchong He , Zhe Jiang , Tingsong Xiao , Zelin Xu , Yukun Li

Neural-Network (NN) based turbulence closures have been developed for being used as pre-trained surrogates for traditional turbulence closures, with the aim to increase computational efficiency and prediction accuracy of CFD simulations.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-26 Cody Grogan , Som Dhulipala , Mauricio Tano , Izabela Gutowska , Som Dutta

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is an important component of molecular property prediction, particularly for drug discovery applications where model predictions direct experimental design and where unanticipated imprecision wastes valuable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-05-21 Lior Hirschfeld , Kyle Swanson , Kevin Yang , Regina Barzilay , Connor W. Coley

Development of an accurate, flexible, and numerically efficient uncertainty quantification (UQ) method is one of fundamental challenges in machine learning. Previously, a UQ method called DISCO Nets has been proposed (Bouchacourt et al.,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-06 Takuya Kanazawa , Chetan Gupta

Weather forecasting is usually solved through numerical weather prediction (NWP), which can sometimes lead to unsatisfactory performance due to inappropriate setting of the initial states. In this paper, we design a data-driven method…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-02-05 Bin Wang , Jie Lu , Zheng Yan , Huaishao Luo , Tianrui Li , Yu Zheng , Guangquan Zhang

We evaluate uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for deep learning applied to liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) physics analysis tasks. As deep learning applications enter widespread usage among physics data analysis, neural…

High Energy Physics - Experiment · Physics 2023-11-02 Dae Heun Koh , Aashwin Mishra , Kazuhiro Terao

Reliable uncertainty estimation is critical for deploying neural networks (NNs) in real-world applications. While existing calibration techniques often rely on post-hoc adjustments or coarse-grained binning methods, they remain limited in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-30 Pedro Mendes , Paolo Romano , David Garlan

Neural Network (NN) models provide potential to speed up the drug discovery process and reduce its failure rates. The success of NN models require uncertainty quantification (UQ) as drug discovery explores chemical space beyond the training…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-01 Ya Ju Fan , Jonathan E. Allen , Kevin S. McLoughlin , Da Shi , Brian J. Bennion , Xiaohua Zhang , Felice C. Lightstone

Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) have emerged as a powerful framework for solving PDEs, yet existing uncertainty quantification (UQ) approaches for PINNs generally lack rigorous statistical guarantees. In this work, we bridge this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-18 Yifan Yu , Cheuk Hin Ho , Yangshuai Wang

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) has increasing importance in building robust high-performance and generalizable materials property prediction models. It can also be used in active learning to train better models by focusing on getting new…

Materials Science · Physics 2022-11-14 Daniel Varivoda , Rongzhi Dong , Sadman Sadeed Omee , Jianjun Hu

Neural networks (NNs) can achieved high performance in various fields such as computer vision, and natural language processing. However, deploying NNs in resource-constrained safety-critical systems has challenges due to uncertainty in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-17 Soyed Tuhin Ahmed

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is important to machine learning (ML) force fields to assess the level of confidence during prediction, as ML models are not inherently physical and can therefore yield catastrophically incorrect predictions.…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2022-11-22 Yuge Hu , Joseph Musielewicz , Zachary Ulissi , Andrew J. Medford
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