Related papers: Misspecified diffusion models with high-frequency …
This paper addresses the problem of universal learning under model misspecification with log-loss. In this setting, the learner operates with a hypothesis class of models denoted by $\Theta$, while the true data-generating process belongs…
Linear mixed effects are considered excellent predictors of cluster-level parameters in various domains. However, previous work has shown that their performance can be seriously affected by departures from modelling assumptions. Since the…
Using stochastic gradient search and the optimal filter derivative, it is possible to perform recursive (i.e., online) maximum likelihood estimation in a non-linear state-space model. As the optimal filter and its derivative are…
We study learning algorithms when there is a mismatch between the distributions of the training and test datasets of a learning algorithm. The effect of this mismatch on the generalization error and model misspecification are quantified.…
Jump diffusion processes are widely used to model asset prices over time, mainly for their ability to capture complex discontinuous behavior, but inference on the model parameters remains a challenge. Here our goal is posterior inference on…
In Positron Emission Tomography, movement leads to blurry reconstructions when not accounted for. Whether known a priori or estimated jointly to reconstruction, motion models are increasingly defined in continuum rather that in discrete,…
In many semiparametric models that are parameterized by two types of parameters---a Euclidean parameter of interest and an infinite-dimensional nuisance parameter---the two parameters are bundled together, that is, the nuisance parameter is…
We consider the linearly transformed spiked model, where observations $Y_i$ are noisy linear transforms of unobserved signals of interest $X_i$: \begin{align*} Y_i = A_i X_i + \varepsilon_i, \end{align*} for $i=1,\ldots,n$. The transform…
Mixture Density Networks (MDNs) can be used to generate probability density functions of model parameters $\boldsymbol{\theta}$ given a set of observables $\mathbf{x}$. In some applications, training data are available only for discrete…
We propose a method to detect model misspecifications in nonlinear causal additive and potentially heteroscedastic noise models. We aim to identify predictor variables for which we can infer the causal effect even in cases of such…
We consider the problem of distributed learning, where a network of agents collectively aim to agree on a hypothesis that best explains a set of distributed observations of conditionally independent random processes. We propose a…
We consider maximum likelihood estimation with data from a bivariate Gaussian process with a separable exponential covariance model under fixed domain asymptotic. We first characterize the equivalence of Gaussian measures under this model.…
The problem of parameter estimation by the continuous time observations of a deterministic signal in white gaussian noise is considered. The asymptotic properties of the maximul likelihood estimator are described in the asymptotics of small…
Random-effects models are frequently used to synthesise information from different studies in meta-analysis. While likelihood-based inference is attractive both in terms of limiting properties and of implementation, its application in…
While several methods for predicting uncertainty on deep networks have been recently proposed, they do not readily translate to large and complex datasets. In this paper we utilize a simplified form of the Mixture Density Networks (MDNs) to…
In this paper, we show how to estimate the asymptotic (conditional) covariance matrix, which appears in central limit theorems in high-frequency estimation of asset return volatility. We provide a recipe for the estimation of this matrix by…
We find the asymptotic distribution of the multi-dimensional multi-scale and kernel estimators for high-frequency financial data with microstructure. Sampling times are allowed to be asynchronous and endogenous. In the process, we show that…
The purpose of this article is to develop a general parametric estimation theory that allows the derivation of the limit distribution of estimators in non-regular models where the true parameter value may lie on the boundary of the…
In this paper, we present the asymptotic distribution of M-estimators for parameters in non-stationary AR(p) processes. The innovations are assumed to be in the domain of attraction of a stable law with index $0<\alpha\le2$. In particular,…
A major bottleneck of standard auto-regressive large language models is that their inference process is inherently sequential, resulting in very long and costly inference times. To circumvent this, practitioners proposed a class of language…