Related papers: Quantifying the Effects of the 2008 Recession usin…
Mortgages account for the largest portion of household debt in the United States, totaling around \$12 trillion nationwide. In times of financial hardship, alleviating mortgage burdens is essential for supporting affected households. The…
In this paper, I explored how a range of regression and machine learning techniques can be applied to monthly U.S. unemployment data to produce timely forecasts. I compared seven models: Linear Regression, SGDRegressor, Random Forest,…
In this study interest centers on regional differences in the response of housing prices to monetary policy shocks in the US. We address this issue by analyzing monthly home price data for metropolitan regions using a factor-augmented…
The latest global financial tsunami and its follow-up global economic recession has uncovered the crucial impact of housing markets on financial and economic systems. The Chinese stock market experienced a markedly fall during the global…
Homelessness in American cities is becoming an ever more prominent issue, but its causes remain contested, ranging from mental health and substance abuse to housing affordability and local labor markets. To shed light on this issue, I…
We investigate two asymmetric loss functions, namely LINEX loss and power divergence loss for optimal spatial prediction with area-level data. With our motivation arising from the real estate industry, namely in real estate valuation, we…
We describe a method to identify poor households in data-scarce countries by leveraging information contained in nationally representative household surveys. It employs standard statistical learning techniques---cross-validation and…
The 2008 global financial crisis marked the beginning of a decade dominated by fiscal austerity policies in much of the developed world. This paper presents a qualitative narrative review of an extensive collection of academic literature to…
Decades of economic decline have led to areas of increased deprivation in a number of U.S. inner cities, which can be linked to adverse health and other outcomes. Yet the calculation of a single "deprivation" index, which has received wide…
The study and measurement of economic resilience is ruled by high level of complexity related to the diverse structure, functionality, spatiality, and dynamics describing economic systems. Towards serving the demand of integration, this…
This paper uses standard and penalized logistic regression models to predict the Great Recession and the Covid-19 recession in the US in real time. It examines the predictability of various macroeconomic and financial indicators with…
This paper develops an algorithm for detecting US recessions in real time. The algorithm constructs hundreds of millions of recession classifiers by combining unemployment and vacancy data. Classifiers are then selected to avoid both false…
Even at the beginning of 2008, the economic recession of 2008/09 was not being predicted. The failure to predict recessions is a persistent theme in economic forecasting. The Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) provides data on…
The financial markets are understood as complex dynamical systems whose dynamics is analysed mostly using nonstationary and brief data sets that usually come from stock markets. For such data sets, a reliable method of analysis is based on…
We analyse tourism behaviour of Italian residents in the period covering the 2008 Great Recession. Using the Trips of Italian Residents in Italy and Abroad quarterly survey, carried out by the Italian National Institute of Statistics, we…
Public availability of Artificial Intelligence generated information can change the markets forever, and its factoring into economical dynamics may take economists by surprise, out-dating models and schools of thought. Real estate…
Despite well-documented consequences of the U.S. government's 1930s housing policies on racial wealth disparities, scholars have struggled to quantify its precise financial effects due to the inaccessibility of historical property appraisal…
In the following paper, we use a topic modeling algorithm and sentiment scoring methods to construct a novel metric that serves as a leading indicator in recession prediction models. We hypothesize that the inclusion of such a sentiment…
Using a modified damped harmonic oscillator model equivalent to a model of market dynamics with price expectations, we analyze the reaction of financial markets to shocks. In order to do this, we gather data from indices of a variety of…
The growing homelessness crisis in the U.S. presents complex social, economic, and public health challenges, straining shelters, healthcare, and social services while limiting effective interventions. Traditional assessment methods struggle…