Related papers: Probability Assessments of an Ice-Free Arctic: Com…
Rapidly diminishing Arctic summer sea ice is a strong signal of the pace of global climate change. We provide point, interval, and density forecasts for four measures of Arctic sea ice: area, extent, thickness, and volume. Importantly, we…
Arctic sea ice has steadily diminished as atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have increased. Using observed data from 1979 to 2019, we estimate a close contemporaneous linear relationship between Arctic sea ice area and cumulative…
Several environmental tipping points and self-reinforcing feedback loops are still disregarded within the frequently used climate models. Thus, existing climate models are not very representative for providing projections of the conditions…
The downward trend in Arctic sea ice extent is one of the most dramatic signals of climate change during recent decades. Comprehensive climate models have struggled to reproduce this, typically simulating a slower rate of sea ice retreat…
Observations indicate that the Arctic sea ice cover is rapidly retreating while the Antarctic sea ice cover is steadily expanding. State-of-the-art climate models, by contrast, typically simulate a moderate decrease in both the Arctic and…
Here we evaluate the sea ice, surface air temperature, and sea-level-pressure from 31 of the models used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) for their biases, trends, and variability, and compare them to the CMIP5…
Freshwater forcing from a retreating Antarctic Ice Sheet could have a wide range of impacts on future global climate. Here, we report on multi-century (present-2250) climate simulations performed using a fully coupled numerical model…
The importance of snow cover and ice extent in the Northern Hemisphere was recognized by various authors leading to a positive feedback of surface reflectivity on climate. In fact, the retreat of Arctic sea ice is accompanied by enhanced…
It has been widely debated whether Arctic sea-ice loss can reach a tipping point beyond which a large sea-ice area disappears abruptly. The theory of dynamical systems predicts a slowing down when a system destabilises towards a tipping…
The Arctic sea ice represents an important energy reservoir for the climate of the northern hemisphere. The shrinking of the polar ice in the past decades decreases the stored energy and raises serious concerns about future climate…
The Arctic sea ice cover has significantly declined over the recent decades. The debate on whether this decline is caused by anthropogenic activity or internal cycles is still ongoing. However, despite this uncertainty, some physical…
Sea ice, or frozen ocean water, freezes and melts every year in the Arctic. Forecasts of where sea ice will be located weeks to months in advance have become more important as the amount of sea ice declines due to climate change, for…
Recent rapid loss of the Arctic sea ice motivates the study of the Arctic sea ice thickness. Global climate model that describes the ice's thickness evolution requires an accurate spatial temperature profile of the Arctic sea ice. However,…
The Arctic has warmed dramatically compared to the global average over the last few decades. During this same period, there have been strong cooling trends observed in the wintertime, near-surface air temperature over central Eurasia, a…
Abrupt and irreversible winter Arctic sea-ice loss may occur under anthropogenic warming due to the collapse of a sea-ice equilibrium at a threshold value of CO$_2$, commonly referred to as a tipping point. Previous work has been unable to…
Arctic sea ice is rapidly retreating due to global warming, and emerging evidence suggests that the rate of decline may have been underestimated. A key factor contributing to this underestimation is the coarse resolution of current climate…
We propose a reduced-form benchmark predictive model (BPM) for fixed-target forecasting of Arctic sea ice extent, and we provide a case study of its real-time performance for target date September 2020. We visually detail the evolution of…
The diminishing extent of Arctic sea ice is a key indicator of climate change as well as an accelerant for future global warming. Since 1978, Arctic sea ice has been measured using satellite-based microwave sensing; however, different…
Over recent decades, the Arctic Ocean has experienced dramatic changes due to climate change. Retreating sea ice has opened up large areas of ocean, resulting in an enhanced wave climate. Taking into account the intense seasonality and the…
Since about 2000, the total mass of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) has declined at a near-linear rate, increasing global sea levels. Since 2016, however, satellite gravimetry data reveal a slowdown in net AIS mass loss and a net mass gain…