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Convenient access to observational data enables us to learn causal effects without randomized experiments. This research direction draws increasing attention in research areas such as economics, healthcare, and education. For example, we…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2019-12-03 Ruocheng Guo , Jundong Li , Huan Liu

The fundamental problem in treatment effect estimation from observational data is confounder identification and balancing. Most of the previous methods realized confounder balancing by treating all observed pre-treatment variables as…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-13 Anpeng Wu , Kun Kuang , Junkun Yuan , Bo Li , Runze Wu , Qiang Zhu , Yueting Zhuang , Fei Wu

This research addresses the challenge of conducting interpretable causal inference between a binary treatment and its resulting outcome when not all confounders are known. Confounders are factors that have an influence on both the treatment…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-24 Sohaib Kiani , Jared Barton , Jon Sushinsky , Lynda Heimbach , Bo Luo

Counterfactual inference is a powerful tool, capable of solving challenging problems in high-profile sectors. To perform counterfactual inference, one requires knowledge of the underlying causal mechanisms. However, causal mechanisms cannot…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-23 Athanasios Vlontzos , Bernhard Kainz , Ciaran M. Gilligan-Lee

Identifying when to give treatments to patients and how to select among multiple treatments over time are important medical problems with a few existing solutions. In this paper, we introduce the Counterfactual Recurrent Network (CRN), a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-12 Ioana Bica , Ahmed M. Alaa , James Jordon , Mihaela van der Schaar

Measuring treatment effects in observational studies is challenging because of confounding bias. Confounding occurs when a variable affects both the treatment and the outcome. Traditional methods such as propensity score matching estimate…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-23 Bevan I. Smith , Charles Chimedza

We study the problem of estimation of Individual Treatment Effects (ITE) in the context of multiple treatments and networked observational data. Leveraging the network information, we aim to utilize hidden confounders that may not be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-20 Abhinav Thorat , Ravi Kolla , Niranjan Pedanekar , Naoyuki Onoe

Estimating an individual's potential response to interventions from observational data is of high practical relevance for many domains, such as healthcare, public policy or economics. In this setting, it is often the case that combinations…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-23 Sonali Parbhoo , Stefan Bauer , Patrick Schwab

Predicting the impact of treatments from observational data only still represents a majorchallenge despite recent significant advances in time series modeling. Treatment assignments are usually correlated with the predictors of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-25 Edward De Brouwer , Javier González Hernández , Stephanie Hyland

The estimation of treatment effects is a pervasive problem in medicine. Existing methods for estimating treatment effects from longitudinal observational data assume that there are no hidden confounders, an assumption that is not testable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-21 Ioana Bica , Ahmed M. Alaa , Mihaela van der Schaar

We regularly consider answering counterfactual questions in practice, such as "Would people with diabetes take a turn for the better had they choose another medication?". Observational studies are growing in significance in answering such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-16 Guanglin Zhou , Lina Yao , Xiwei Xu , Chen Wang , Liming Zhu

Observational studies have recently received significant attention from the machine learning community due to the increasingly available non-experimental observational data and the limitations of the experimental studies, such as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-26 Vinod Kumar Chauhan , Soheila Molaei , Marzia Hoque Tania , Anshul Thakur , Tingting Zhu , David A. Clifton

Estimating counterfactual outcomes over time from observational data is relevant for many applications (e.g., personalized medicine). Yet, state-of-the-art methods build upon simple long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, thus rendering…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-06 Valentyn Melnychuk , Dennis Frauen , Stefan Feuerriegel

One of the major challenges in estimating conditional potential outcomes and conditional average treatment effects (CATE) is the presence of hidden confounders. Since testing for hidden confounders cannot be accomplished only with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-17 Ahmed Aloui , Juncheng Dong , Ali Hasan , Vahid Tarokh

Medical professionals evaluating alternative treatment plans for a patient often encounter time varying confounders, or covariates that affect both the future treatment assignment and the patient outcome. The recently proposed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-21 Garima Gupta , Lovekesh Vig , Gautam Shroff

Precision medicine has the potential to tailor treatment decisions to individual patients using machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI), but it faces significant challenges due to complex biases in clinical observational data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-26 Michael Vollenweider , Manuel Schürch , Chiara Rohrer , Gabriele Gut , Michael Krauthammer , Andreas Wicki

Counterfactual estimation over time is important in various applications, such as personalized medicine. However, time-dependent confounding bias in observational data still poses a significant challenge in achieving accurate and efficient…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-13 Nghia D. Nguyen , Pablo Robles-Granda , Lav R. Varshney

In causal mediation studies that decompose an average treatment effect into a natural indirect effect (NIE) and a natural direct effect (NDE), examples of post-treatment confounding are abundant. Past research has generally considered it…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-26 Guanglei Hong , Fan Yang , Xu Qin

When a new treatment is considered for use, whether a pharmaceutical drug or a search engine ranking algorithm, a typical question that arises is, will its performance exceed that of the current treatment? The conventional way to answer…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-10-27 Nir Rosenfeld , Yishay Mansour , Elad Yom-Tov

Estimating causal effects under networked interference from observational data is a crucial yet challenging problem. Most existing methods mainly rely on the networked unconfoundedness assumption, which guarantees the identification of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-28 Weilin Chen , Ruichu Cai , Jie Qiao , Yuguang Yan , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato
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