Related papers: Building and Testing Yield Curve Generators for P&…
We propose novel methods for change-point testing for nonparametric estimators of expected shortfall and related risk measures in weakly dependent time series. We can detect general multiple structural changes in the tails of marginal…
We design a system for risk-analyzing and pricing portfolios of non-performing consumer credit loans. The rapid development of credit lending business for consumers heightens the need for trading portfolios formed by overdue loans as a…
In the financial services industry, forecasting the risk factor distribution conditional on the history and the current market environment is the key to market risk modeling in general and value at risk (VaR) model in particular. As one of…
The market practice of extrapolating different term structures from different instruments lacks a rigorous justification in terms of cash flows structure and market observables. In this paper, we integrate our previous consistent theory for…
We analyze loss development in NAIC Schedule P loss triangles using functional data analysis methods. Adopting the functional viewpoint, our dataset comprises 3300+ curves of incremental loss ratios (ILR) of workers' compensation lines over…
We estimate generic statistical properties of a structural credit risk model by considering an ensemble of correlation matrices. This ensemble is set up by Random Matrix Theory. We demonstrate analytically that the presence of correlations…
Bond rating Transition Probability Matrices (TPMs) are built over a one-year time-frame and for many practical purposes, like the assessment of risk in portfolios or the computation of banking Capital Requirements (e.g. the new IFRS 9…
The main purpose of this work is to derive a partial differential equation for the reserves of life insurance liabilities subject to stochastic interest rates where the benefits and premiums depend directly on changes in the interest rate…
Stress testing refers to the application of adverse financial or macroeconomic scenarios to a portfolio. For this purpose, financial or macroeconomic risk factors are linked with asset returns, typically via a factor model. We expand the…
We introduce a simple approach for testing the reliability of homogeneous generators and the Markov property of the stochastic processes underlying empirical time series of credit ratings. We analyze open access data provided by Moody's and…
Credit capital requirements in Internal Rating Based approaches require the calibration of two key parameters: the probability of default and the loss-given-default. This letter considers the uncertainty about these two parameters and…
We develop an agent-based simulation of the catastrophe insurance and reinsurance industry and use it to study the problem of risk model homogeneity. The model simulates the balance sheets of insurance firms, who collect premiums from…
In this three-part series of papers, we argue that the conventional spread measures are not well defined for credit-risky bonds and introduce a set of credit term structures which correct for the biases associated with the strippable cash…
Estimating the covariance of asset returns, i.e., the risk model, is a key component of financial portfolio construction and evaluation. Most risk modeling approaches produce a factor model that decomposes the asset variability into two…
We present a family of models for the term structure of interest rates which describe the interest rate curve as a stochastic process in a Hilbert space. We start by decomposing the deformations of the term structure into the variations of…
A hierarchical approach to the construction of compound distributions for process-induced faults in IC manufacture is proposed. Within this framework, the negative binomial distribution and the compound binomial distribution are treated as…
The success of OpenAI's ChatGPT in 2023 has spurred financial enterprises into exploring Generative AI applications to reduce costs or drive revenue within different lines of businesses in the Financial Industry. While these applications…
As part of Basel II's incremental risk charge (IRC) methodology, this paper summarizes our extensive investigations of constructing transition probability matrices (TPMs) for unsecuritized credit products in the trading book. The objective…
This article explores the use of machine learning models to build a market generator. The underlying idea is to simulate artificial multi-dimensional financial time series, whose statistical properties are the same as those observed in the…
If the probability of default parameters (PDs) fed as input into a credit portfolio model are estimated as through-the-cycle (TTC) PDs stressed market conditions have little impact on the results of the capital calculations conducted with…