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Complex systems are sometimes subject to non Gaussian alpha stable Levy fluctuations. A new method is devised to estimate this uncertain parameter and other system parameters, using observations on either mean exit time or escape…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2013-06-04 Ting Gao , Jinqiao Duan

Stochastic reduced-order models are widely used to represent the effective dynamics of complex systems, but estimating their drift and diffusion coefficients from data remains challenging. Standard approaches often rely on short-time…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-28 Ludovico T. Giorgini

A formulation of Langevin dynamics for discrete systems is derived as a class of generic stochastic processes. The dynamics simplify for a two-state system and suggest a network architecture which is implemented by the Langevin machine. The…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2021-04-08 Lukas Kades , Jan M. Pawlowski

We introduce a constructive framework to learn effective Langevin equations from stationary time series. Unlike conventional approaches that require iterative calibration to match target statistics, our construction guarantees the observed…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2026-02-16 Ludovico Theo Giorgini

Cross-sectional studies are widely prevalent since they are more feasible to conduct compared to longitudinal studies. However, cross-sectional data lack the temporal information required to study the evolution of the underlying processes.…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2021-02-24 Pritha Dutta , Rick Quax , Loes Crielaard , Peter M. A. Sloot

Bayesian inference in complex generative models is often obstructed by the absence of tractable likelihoods and the infeasibility of computing gradients of high-dimensional simulators. Existing likelihood-free methods for generalized…

Applications · Statistics 2026-01-05 Diksha Bhandari , Sebastian Reich

Monte Carlo sampling techniques have broad applications in machine learning, Bayesian posterior inference, and parameter estimation. Often the target distribution takes the form of a product distribution over a dataset with a large number…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-09-19 Charles Matthews , Jonathan Weare

We propose a family of optimization methods that achieve linear convergence using first-order gradient information and constant step sizes on a class of convex functions much larger than the smooth and strongly convex ones. This larger…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-09-14 Chris J. Maddison , Daniel Paulin , Yee Whye Teh , Brendan O'Donoghue , Arnaud Doucet

Using Bayesian experimental design techniques, we have shown that for a single two-level quantum mechanical system under strong (projective) measurement, the dynamical parameters of a model Hamiltonian can be estimated with exponentially…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2012-06-05 Christopher Ferrie , Christopher E. Granade , D. G. Cory

Many real-world systems exhibit ``noisy'' evolution in time; interpreting their finitely-sampled behavior as arising from continuous-time processes (in the It\^o or Stratonovich sense) has led to significant success in modeling and analysis…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2025-07-29 David Sabin-Miller , Daniel M. Abrams

Fitting models to data to obtain distributions of consistent parameter values is important for uncertainty quantification, model comparison, and prediction. Standard Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approaches for fitting ordinary…

Computation · Statistics 2025-09-05 Chris Chi , Jonathan Weare , Aaron R. Dinner

The movement of organisms is subject to a multitude of influences of widely varying character: from the bio-mechanics of the individual, over the interaction with the complex environment many animals live in, to evolutionary pressure and…

Biological Physics · Physics 2013-07-18 Friedrich Lenz , Aleksei V. Chechkin , Rainer Klages

Data-driven modeling of non-Markovian dynamics is a recent topic of research with applications in many fields such as climate research, molecular dynamics, biophysics, or wind power modeling. In the frequently used standard Langevin…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2022-07-22 Clemens Willers , Oliver Kamps

Learning and predicting the dynamics of physical systems requires a profound understanding of the underlying physical laws. Recent works on learning physical laws involve generalizing the equation discovery frameworks to the discovery of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-11 Tapas Tripura , Souvik Chakraborty

We propose a method for learning dynamical systems from high-dimensional empirical data that combines variational autoencoders and (spatio-)temporal attention within a framework designed to enforce certain scientifically-motivated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-22 Kai Lagemann , Christian Lagemann , Sach Mukherjee

In this note, we propose a novel approach for a class of autonomous dynamical systems that allows, given some observations of the solutions, to identify its parameters and reconstruct the state vector. This approach relies on proving the…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2024-08-22 Alicja B Kubik , Alain Rapaport , Benjamin Ivorra , Ángel M Ramos

The stochastic properties of a Langevin-type Markov process can be extracted from a given time series by a Markov analysis. Also processes that obey a stochastically forced second order differential equation can be analyzed this way by…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2014-12-09 Bernd Lehle , Joachim Peinke

The measured time series from complex systems are renowned for their intricate stochastic behavior, characterized by random fluctuations stemming from external influences and nonlinear interactions. These fluctuations take diverse forms,…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-03-19 Pyei Phyo Lin , Matthias Wächter , Joachim Peinke , M. Reza Rahimi Tabar

Many complex systems, ranging from migrating cells to animal groups, exhibit stochastic dynamics described by the underdamped Langevin equation. Inferring such an equation of motion from experimental data can provide profound insight into…

Biological Physics · Physics 2026-04-17 David B. Brückner , Pierre Ronceray , Chase P. Broedersz

Predictive dynamical models for marine ecosystems are used for a variety of needs. Due to sparse measurements and limited understanding of the myriad of ocean processes, there is however significant uncertainty. There is model uncertainty…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2023-06-06 Abhinav Gupta , Pierre F. J. Lermusiaux