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Hidden semi-Markov models (HSMMs) are latent variable models which allow latent state persistence and can be viewed as a generalization of the popular hidden Markov models (HMMs). In this paper, we introduce a novel spectral algorithm to…
The hidden Markov model (HMM) provides a powerful framework for inference in time-varying environments, where the underlying state evolves according to a Markov chain. To address the optimal filtering problem in general dynamic settings, we…
We propose DenseHMM - a modification of Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) that allows to learn dense representations of both the hidden states and the observables. Compared to the standard HMM, transition probabilities are not atomic but composed…
In unsupervised classification, Hidden Markov Models (HMM) are used to account for a neighborhood structure between observations. The emission distributions are often supposed to belong to some parametric family. In this paper, a…
A nonhomogeneous hidden semi-Markov model is proposed to segment toroidal time series according to a finite number of latent regimes and, simultaneously, estimate the influence of time-varying covariates on the process' survival under each…
Hidden Markov Models (HMM) model a sequence of observations that are dependent on a hidden (or latent) state that follow a Markov chain. These models are widely used in diverse fields including ecology, speech recognition, and…
We consider two-state Non-Homogeneous Hidden Markov Models (NHHMMs) for forecasting univariate time series. Given a set of predictors, the time series are modeled via predictive regressions with state dependent coefficients and time-varying…
In this paper, we explore the class of the Hidden Semi-Markov Model (HSMM), a flexible extension of the popular Hidden Markov Model (HMM) that allows the underlying stochastic process to be a semi-Markov chain. HSMMs are typically used less…
The hidden Markov model (HMM) is a generative model that treats sequential data under the assumption that each observation is conditioned on the state of a discrete hidden variable that evolves in time as a Markov chain. In this paper, we…
In this paper, we introduce a variant of hidden Markov models in which the transition probabilities between the states, as well as the emission distributions, are not constant in time but vary in a periodic manner. This class of models,…
The Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm is a versatile tool for model parameter estimation in latent data models. When processing large data sets or data stream however, EM becomes intractable since it requires the whole data set to be…
We consider probabilistic systems with hidden state and unobservable transitions, an extension of Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) that in particular admits unobservable {\epsilon}-transitions (also called null transitions), allowing state…
As one of Bayesian analysis tools, Hidden Markov Model (HMM) has been used to in extensive applications. Most HMMs are solved by Baum-Welch algorithm (BWHMM) to predict the model parameters, which is difficult to find global optimal…
Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are popular models to identify a finite number of latent states from sequential data. However, fitting them to large data sets can be computationally demanding because most likelihood maximization techniques…
Modeling continuous-time physiological processes that manifest a patient's evolving clinical states is a key step in approaching many problems in healthcare. In this paper, we develop the Hidden Absorbing Semi-Markov Model (HASMM): a…
The hidden Markov model (HMM) is a widely-used generative model that copes with sequential data, assuming that each observation is conditioned on the state of a hidden Markov chain. In this paper, we derive a novel algorithm to cluster HMMs…
Industrial processes generate a massive amount of monitoring data that can be exploited to uncover hidden time losses in the system. This can be used to enhance the accuracy of maintenance policies and increase the effectiveness of the…
When learning a hidden Markov model (HMM), sequen- tial observations can often be complemented by real-valued summary response variables generated from the path of hid- den states. Such settings arise in numerous domains, includ- ing many…
Online (also called "recursive" or "adaptive") estimation of fixed model parameters in hidden Markov models is a topic of much interest in times series modelling. In this work, we propose an online parameter estimation algorithm that…
The problem of situational awareness (SAW) is investigated from the probabilistic modeling point of view. Taking the situation as a hidden variable, we introduce a hidden Markov model (HMM) and an extended state space model (ESSM) to…