Related papers: Hybrid threats as an exogenous economic shock
The study of systemic risk is often presented through the analysis of several measures referring to quantities used by practitioners and policy makers. Almost invariably, those measures evaluate the size of the impact that exogenous events…
Since several years, the fragility of global supply chains (GSCs) is at historically high levels. In the same time, the landscape of hybrid threats is expanding; new forms of hybrid threats create different types of uncertainties. This…
Persistent economic competition is often justified as a mechanism of innovation, efficiency, and welfare maximization. Yet empirical evidence across disciplines reveals that competition systematically generates fragility, inequality, and…
A simple quantitative example of a reflexive feedback process and the resulting price dynamics after an exogenous price shock to a financial network is presented. Furthermore, an outline of a theory that connects financial reflexivity,…
Current business cycle theory is an application of the general equilibrium theory. This paper presents the business cycle model without using general equilibrium framework. We treat agents risk assessments as their coordinates x on economic…
We propose a novel framework for modeling time-varying persistence in economic time series, allowing for smoothly evolving heterogeneity in shock dynamics. We leverage localized regression techniques to flexibly identify changes in…
The nature of information security has been, and probably will continue to be, marked by the asymmetric competition of attackers and defenders over the control of an uncertain environment. The reduction of this degree of uncertainty via an…
This paper suggests that business cycles may be a manifestation of coupled real economy and stock market dynamics and describes a mechanism that can generate economic fluctuations consistent with observed business cycles. To this end, we…
This survey develops a dual analysis, consisting, first, in a bibliometric examination and, second, in a close literature review of all the scientific production around cryptocurrencies conducted in economics so far. The aim of this paper…
Knowing and modelling the migration phenomena and especially the social and economic consequences have a theoretical and practical importance, being related to their consequences for development, economic progress (or as appropriate,…
Business cycles tend to comove across countries. However, standard models that attribute comovement to propagation of exogenous shocks struggle to generate a level of comovement that is as high as in the data. In this paper, we consider…
Western governments have adopted an assortment of counter-hybrid threat measures to defend against hostile actions below the conventional military threshold. The impact of these measures is unclear because of the ambiguity of hybrid…
This paper describes an agent-based model of interacting firms, in which interacting firm agents rationally invest capital and labor in order to maximize payoff. Both transactions and production are taken into account in this model. First,…
Are large biological extinctions such as the Cretaceous/Tertiary KT boundary due to a meteorite, extreme volcanic activity or self-organized critical extinction cascades? Are commercial successes due to a progressive reputation cascade or…
The efficient market hypothesis (EMH), based on rational expectations and market equilibrium, is the dominant perspective for modelling economic markets. However, the most notable critique of the EMH is the inability to model periods of…
Recent studies highlight economic complexity's role in mitigating fiscal crises, often measured via an economy's trade structure. Trade, however, is just one facet of an economy's structure and omits critical innovative activities like…
This article is a follow-up of a short essay that appeared in Nature 455, 1181 (2008) [arXiv:0810.5306]. It has become increasingly clear that the erratic dynamics of markets is mostly endogenous and not due to the rational processing of…
In this paper, I endeavour to construct a new model, by extending the classic exogenous economic growth model by including a measurement which tries to explain and quantify the size of technological innovation ( A ) endogenously. I do not…
In this paper, we design two chapters to discuss trade dynamics with heterogeneous fluctuations, contributing new insights to macroeconomic issues related to international trade. In the first chapter, we model general exchange rate…
This paper aims at solving FX market volatility modeling problem and finding the most becoming approach to this task. Validity of two competing approaches, classical econometric generalized conditional heteroscedasticity and mathematical…