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We propose a method to efficiently integrate truncated probability densities. The method uses Markov chain Monte Carlo method to sample from a probability density matching the function being integrated. The required normalisation or…

Computation · Statistics 2013-12-10 A. John Arul , Kannan Iyer

We present a sequential sampling methodology for weakly structural Markov laws, arising naturally in a Bayesian structure learning context for decomposable graphical models. As a key component of our suggested approach, we show that the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-09-04 Jimmy Olsson , Tetyana Pavlenko , Felix L. Rios

Driven by several successful applications such as in stochastic gradient descent or in Bayesian computation, control variates have become a major tool for Monte Carlo integration. However, standard methods do not allow the distribution of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-06 Rémi Leluc , François Portier , Johan Segers , Aigerim Zhuman

High dimensional integration is essential to many areas of science, ranging from particle physics to Bayesian inference. Approximating these integrals is hard, due in part to the difficulty of locating and sampling from regions of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-05-25 Thomas Foster , Chon Lok Lei , Martin Robinson , David Gavaghan , Ben Lambert

This paper investigates adaptive importance sampling algorithms for which the policy, the sequence of distributions used to generate the particles, is a mixture distribution between a flexible kernel density estimate (based on the previous…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-03-23 Bernard Delyon , François Portier

Importance sampling (IS) and numerical integration methods are usually employed for approximating moments of complicated target distributions. In its basic procedure, the IS methodology randomly draws samples from a proposal distribution…

Computation · Statistics 2022-04-12 Víctor Elvira , Luca Martino , Pau Closas

Recent advances demonstrate that increasing inference-time computation can significantly boost the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs). Although repeated sampling (i.e., generating multiple candidate outputs) is a highly…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-11-10 Yuichi Inoue , Kou Misaki , Yuki Imajuku , So Kuroki , Taishi Nakamura , Takuya Akiba

Computing the exact likelihood of data in large Bayesian networks consisting of thousands of vertices is often a difficult task. When these models contain many deterministic conditional probability tables and when the observed values are…

Computation · Statistics 2012-06-26 Ydo Wexler , Dan Geiger

We develop a novel advanced Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that is capable of sampling from the posterior distribution of non-linear state space models for both the unobserved latent states and the unknown model parameters. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-17 Gareth W. Peters , Geoff R. Hosack , Keith R. Hayes

We observe $n$ sequences at each of $m$ sites, and assume that they have evolved from an ancestral sequence that forms the root of a binary tree of known topology and branch lengths, but the sequence states at internal nodes are unknown.…

Computation · Statistics 2014-08-28 Adam Persing , Ajay Jasra , Alexandros Beskos , David Balding , Maria De Iorio

We propose MDP-GapE, a new trajectory-based Monte-Carlo Tree Search algorithm for planning in a Markov Decision Process in which transitions have a finite support. We prove an upper bound on the number of calls to the generative models…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-11 Anders Jonsson , Emilie Kaufmann , Pierre Ménard , Omar Darwiche Domingues , Edouard Leurent , Michal Valko

We consider the problem of the estimation of a high-dimensional probability distribution from i.i.d. samples of the distribution using model classes of functions in tree-based tensor formats, a particular case of tensor networks associated…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-05-21 Erwan Grelier , Anthony Nouy , Régis Lebrun

Based on the algorithm Informed Importance Tempering (IIT) proposed by Li et al. (2023) we propose an algorithm that uses an adaptive bounded balancing function. We argue why implementing parallel tempering where each replica uses a…

We propose Amortized Posterior Sampling (APS), a novel variational inference approach for efficient posterior sampling in inverse problems. Our method trains a conditional flow model to minimize the divergence between the variational…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-07-14 Abbas Mammadov , Hyungjin Chung , Jong Chul Ye

We consider Monte Carlo approximations to the maximum likelihood estimator in models with intractable norming constants. This paper deals with adaptive Monte Carlo algorithms, which adjust control parameters in the course of simulation. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-12-08 Blazej Miasojedow , Wojciech Niemiro , Jan Palczewski , Wojciech Rejchel

This paper presents a novel Importance Sampling (IS) scheme for estimating distribution tails of performance measures modeled with a rich set of tools such as linear programs, integer linear programs, piecewise linear/quadratic objectives,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-07-11 Anand Deo , Karthyek Murthy

TAPAS is a novel adaptive sampling method for the softmax model. It uses a two pass sampling strategy where the examples used to approximate the gradient of the partition function are first sampled according to a squashed population…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-07-17 Yu Bai , Sally Goldman , Li Zhang

Tree-based ensembles such as random forests remain the go-to for tabular data over deep learning models due to their prediction performance and computational efficiency. These advantages have led to their widespread deployment in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-28 Zhongyuan Liang , Zachary T. Rewolinski , Abhineet Agarwal , Tiffany M. Tang , Bin Yu

Decision trees and random forest remain highly competitive for classification on medium-sized, standard datasets due to their robustness, minimal preprocessing requirements, and interpretability. However, a single tree suffers from high…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-02 Cencheng Shen , Yuexiao Dong , Carey E. Priebe

Multiple importance sampling (MIS) is an increasingly used methodology where several proposal densities are used to approximate integrals, generally involving target probability density functions. The use of several proposals allows for a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-07-12 Rahul Mukerjee , Víctor Elvira