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This paper proposes a new importance sampling (IS) that is tailored to quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) integration over $\mathbb{R}^s$. IS introduces a multiplicative adjustment to the integrand by compensating the sampling from the proposal…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-09-19 Zexin Pan , Du Ouyang , Zhijian He

This article develops a general-purpose adaptive sampler that approximates the target density by a mixture of multivariate t densities. The adaptive sampler is based on reversible proposal distributions each of which has the mixture of…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-08-22 Minh-Ngoc Tran , Michael K. Pitt , Robert Kohn

Recent advances in Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) extend the scope of Bayesian inference to models for which the likelihood function is intractable. Although these developments allow us to estimate model parameters, other basic problems…

Computation · Statistics 2019-12-12 Minh-Ngoc Tran , Marcel Scharth , David Gunawan , Robert Kohn , Scott D. Brown , Guy E. Hawkins

Sampling from circular distributions is a fundamental task in directional statistics. A key challenge in acceptance-rejection methods lies in selecting an efficient envelope density, as poor choices can lead to low acceptance rates and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-17 Surojit Biswas , Buddhananda Banerjee

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, such as the Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm, are widely used for Bayesian inference. One of the most important issues for any MCMC method is the convergence of the Markov chain, which depends…

Computation · Statistics 2015-11-20 Luca Martino , Jesse Read , David Luengo

We analyze the optimized adaptive importance sampler (OAIS) for performing Monte Carlo integration with general proposals. We leverage a classical result which shows that the bias and the mean-squared error (MSE) of the importance sampling…

Computation · Statistics 2024-01-30 Ömer Deniz Akyildiz

This paper focuses on variational inference with intractable likelihood functions that can be unbiasedly estimated. A flexible variational approximation based on Gaussian mixtures is developed, by adopting the mixture population Monte Carlo…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-12-02 Zhijian He , Shifeng Huo , Tianhui Yang

Sampling is an important tool for estimating large, complex sums and integrals over high dimensional spaces. For instance, important sampling has been used as an alternative to exact methods for inference in belief networks. Ideally, we…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-18 Luis E. Ortiz , Leslie Pack Kaelbling

Importance sampling is a rare event simulation technique used in Monte Carlo simulations to bias the sampling distribution towards the rare event of interest. By assigning appropriate weights to sampled points, importance sampling allows…

We develop an efficient posterior sampling scheme for the Poisson INGARCH models. The proposed method is based on the approximation of the posterior density that exploits the Poisson limit of the negative binomial distribution. It allows us…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-10 Yixuan Fan , Zhengwei Liu , Fukang Zhu

Bayesian methods have received increasing attention in medical research, where sensitivity analysis of prior distributions is essential. Such analyses typically require the evaluation of the posterior distribution of a parameter under…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-14 Tomohiro Ohigashi , Shonosuke Sugasawa

In Bayesian statistics, many problems can be expressed as the evaluation of the expectation of a quantity of interest with respect to the posterior distribution. Standard Monte Carlo method is often not applicable because the encountered…

Computation · Statistics 2011-10-11 James L. Beck , Konstantin M. Zuev

We consider the popular tree-based search strategy within the framework of reinforcement learning, the Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS), in the context of finite-horizon Markov decision process. We propose a dynamic sampling tree policy that…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-05-09 Gongbo Zhang , Yijie Peng , Yilong Xu

A partially identified model, where the parameters can not be uniquely identified, often arises during statistical analysis. While researchers frequently use Bayesian inference to analyze the models, when Bayesian inference with an…

Computation · Statistics 2024-08-21 Seren Lee , Paul Gustafson

The performance of the Monte Carlo sampling methods relies on the crucial choice of a proposal density. The notion of optimality is fundamental to design suitable adaptive procedures of the proposal density within Monte Carlo schemes. This…

Computation · Statistics 2026-02-24 Fernando Llorente , Luca Martino

Importance sampling (IS) is a technique that enables statistical estimation of output performance at multiple input distributions from a single nominal input distribution. IS is commonly used in Monte Carlo simulation for variance reduction…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-07 Yijuan Liang , Guangxin Jiang , Michael C. Fu

We introduce Tree-AMP, standing for Tree Approximate Message Passing, a python package for compositional inference in high-dimensional tree-structured models. The package provides a unifying framework to study several approximate message…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-04-19 Antoine Baker , Benjamin Aubin , Florent Krzakala , Lenka Zdeborová

Standard approaches for global optimization of non-convex functions, such as branch-and-bound, maintain partition trees to systematically prune the domain. The tree size grows exponentially in the number of dimensions. We propose new…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-02-21 Yaoguang Zhai , Zhizhen Qin , Sicun Gao

We propose a global optimization algorithm based on the Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) sampling framework. In this framework, the objective function is normalized to be a probabilistic density function (pdf), based on which a sequence of…

Computation · Statistics 2016-07-15 Bin Liu

Monte Carlo methods are widely used importance sampling techniques for studying complex physical systems. Integrating these methods with deep learning has significantly improved efficiency and accuracy in high-dimensional problems and…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2024-12-24 Yixiong Ren , Jianhui Zhou
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