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Annealed Importance Sampling (AIS) synthesizes weighted samples from an intractable distribution given its unnormalized density function. This algorithm relies on a sequence of interpolating distributions bridging the target to an initial…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-28 Shirin Goshtasbpour , Victor Cohen , Fernando Perez-Cruz

Iterated sampling importance resampling (i-SIR) is a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm which is based on $N$ independent proposals. As $N$ grows, its samples become nearly independent, but with an increased computational cost. We…

Computation · Statistics 2025-12-24 Pietari Laitinen , Matti Vihola

Bayesian methods and their implementations by means of sophisticated Monte Carlo techniques have become very popular in signal processing over the last years. Importance Sampling (IS) is a well-known Monte Carlo technique that approximates…

Computation · Statistics 2022-01-21 L. Martino , V. Elvira , G. Camps-Valls

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) have received an increased interest in the last years. In BNNs, a complete posterior distribution of the unknown weight and bias parameters of the network is produced during the training stage. This…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-14 Yunshi Huang , Emilie Chouzenoux , Victor Elvira , Jean-Christophe Pesquet

Adaptive importance sampling (AIS) uses past samples to update the \textit{sampling policy} $q_t$ at each stage $t$. Each stage $t$ is formed with two steps : (i) to explore the space with $n_t$ points according to $q_t$ and (ii) to exploit…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-10-04 Bernard Delyon , François Portier

The importance sampling (IS) method lies at the core of many Monte Carlo-based techniques. IS allows the approximation of a target probability distribution by drawing samples from a proposal (or importance) distribution, different from the…

Applications · Statistics 2017-04-21 Manuel A. Vázquez , Joaquín Míguez

Importance sampling is a Monte Carlo method which designs estimators of expectations under a target distribution using weighted samples from a proposal distribution. When the target distribution is complex, such as multimodal distributions…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-04 Anas Cherradi , Yazid Janati , Alain Durmus , Sylvain Le Corff , Yohan Petetin , Julien Stoehr

Annealed Importance Sampling (AIS) is a popular algorithm used to estimates the intractable marginal likelihood of deep generative models. Although AIS is guaranteed to provide unbiased estimate for any set of hyperparameters, the common…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-11 Shirin Goshtasbpour , Fernando Perez-Cruz

Understanding systems by forward and inverse modeling is a recurrent topic of research in many domains of science and engineering. In this context, Monte Carlo methods have been widely used as powerful tools for numerical inference and…

Computation · Statistics 2022-02-14 F. Llorente , L. Martino , D. Delgado , G. Camps-Valls

We consider Particle Gibbs (PG) as a tool for Bayesian analysis of non-linear non-Gaussian state-space models. PG is a Monte Carlo (MC) approximation of the standard Gibbs procedure which uses sequential MC (SMC) importance sampling inside…

Computation · Statistics 2018-04-18 Oliver Grothe , Tore Selland Kleppe , Roman Liesenfeld

Sampling from a multimodal distribution is a fundamental and challenging problem in computational science and statistics. Among various approaches proposed for this task, one popular method is Annealed Importance Sampling (AIS). In this…

Computation · Statistics 2024-11-07 Haoxuan Chen , Lexing Ying

In this paper we address the problem of performing Bayesian inference for the parameters of a nonlinear multi-output model and the covariance matrix of the different output signals. We propose an adaptive importance sampling (AIS) scheme…

Computation · Statistics 2025-01-03 E. Curbelo , L. Martino , F. Llorente , D. Delgado-Gomez

More than twenty years after its introduction, Annealed Importance Sampling (AIS) remains one of the most effective methods for marginal likelihood estimation. It relies on a sequence of distributions interpolating between a tractable…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-25 Arnaud Doucet , Will Grathwohl , Alexander G. D. G. Matthews , Heiko Strathmann

Adaptive importance sampling is a widely spread Monte Carlo technique that uses a re-weighting strategy to iteratively estimate the so-called target distribution. A major drawback of adaptive importance sampling is the large variance of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-11-01 Anna Korba , François Portier

This article investigates the integration of quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) methods using the Adaptive Multiple Importance Sampling (AMIS). Traditional Importance Sampling (IS) often suffers from poor performance since it heavily relies on the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-05-14 Jianlong Chen , Jiarui Du , Xiaoqun Wang , Zhijian He

Estimating rare events in complex systems is a key challenge in reliability analysis. The challenge grows in multimodal problems, where traditional methods often rely on a small set of design points and risk overlooking critical failure…

Computation · Statistics 2025-08-04 Sara Helal , Victor Elvira

Bayesian regression trees are flexible non-parametric models that are well suited to many modern statistical regression problems. Many such tree models have been proposed, from the simple single- tree model to more complex tree ensembles.…

Computation · Statistics 2013-12-09 M. T. Pratola

Bayesian model selection enables comparison and ranking of conceptual subsurface models described by spatial prior models, according to the support provided by available geophysical data. Deep generative neural networks can efficiently…

Geophysics · Physics 2021-05-19 M. Amaya , N. Linde , E. Laloy

We introduce a new class of adaptive importance samplers leveraging adaptive optimisation tools, which we term AdaOAIS. We build on Optimised Adaptive Importance Samplers (OAIS), a class of techniques that adapt proposals to improve the…

Computation · Statistics 2024-10-28 Carlos A. C. C. Perello , Ömer Deniz Akyildiz

Importance Sampling methods are broadly used to approximate posterior distributions or some of their moments. In its standard approach, samples are drawn from a single proposal distribution and weighted properly. However, since the…

Computation · Statistics 2019-11-05 Víctor Elvira , Luca Martino , David Luengo , Mónica F. Bugallo