Related papers: A Finite-Sample Deviation Bound for Stable Autoreg…
Viewing a two time scale stochastic approximation scheme as a noisy discretization of a singularly perturbed differential equation, we obtain a concentration bound for its iterates that captures its behavior with quantifiable high…
In this paper, we study the risk bounds for samples independently drawn from an infinitely divisible (ID) distribution. In particular, based on a martingale method, we develop two deviation inequalities for a sequence of random variables of…
We are interested in the implications of a linearly autocorrelated driven noise on the asymptotic behavior of the usual least squares estimator in a stable autoregressive process. We show that the least squares estimator is not consistent…
We provide finite sample properties of sparse multivariate ARCH processes, where the linear representation of ARCH models allows for an ordinary least squares estimation. Under the restricted strong convexity of the unpenalized loss…
We derive new concentration bounds for time averages of measurement outcomes in quantum Markov processes. This generalizes well-known bounds for classical Markov chains which provide constraints on finite time fluctuations of time-additive…
We establish a negative moment bound for the sample autocovariance matrix of a stationary process driven by conditional heteroscedastic errors. This moment bound enables us to asymptotically express the mean squared prediction error (MSPE)…
We study the effect of stochastic sampling on the estimation of the drift parameter of continuous time AR(1) process. A natural distribution free moment estimator is considered for the drift based on stochastically observed time points. The…
With motivation from K. D\c{e}bicki and P. Kisowski (2007), in this paper we derive the exact tail asymptotics of $\alpha(t)$-locally stationary Gaussian processes with non-constant variance functions. We show that some certain variance…
Certain extremum estimators have asymptotic distributions that are non-Gaussian, yet characterizable as the distribution of the $\argmax$ of a Gaussian process. This paper presents high-level sufficient conditions under which such…
In this paper we study the large deviations of time averaged mean square displacement (TAMSD) for Gaussian processes. The theory of large deviations is related to the exponential decay of probabilities of large fluctuations in random…
We study the asymptotic distribution of the output of a stable Linear Time-Invariant (LTI) system driven by a non-Gaussian stochastic input. Motivated by longstanding heuristics in the stochastic describing function method, we rigorously…
In this article, we study the limit distribution of the least square estimator, properly normalized, from a regression model in which observations are assumed to be finite ($\alpha N$) and sampled under two different random times. Based on…
We obtain non asymptotic bounds for the Monte Carlo algorithm associated to the Euler discretization of some diffusion processes. The key tool is the Gaussian concentration satisfied by the density of the discretization scheme. This…
We derive exact asymptotics of $$\mathbb{P}\left(\sup_{\mathbf{t}\in {\mathcal{A}}}X(\mathbf{t})>u\right),~ \text{as}~ u\to\infty,$$ for a centered Gaussian field $X(\mathbf{t}),~ \mathbf{t}\in \mathcal{A}\subset\mathbb{R}^n$, $n>1$ with…
This paper considers the problem of robust adaptive efficient estimating of a periodic function in a continuous time regression model with the dependent noises given by a general square integrable semimartingale with a conditionally…
We introduce a unified operator-theoretic framework for analyzing mixing times of finite-state ergodic Markov chains that applies to both reversible and non-reversible dynamics. The central object in our analysis is the projected transition…
In the present work, we consider a stable one-dimensional gaussian autoregressive model in continous time. Using the limit theorems with logarithmic averaging obtained for continous local martingales, we construct then an estimator of the…
This paper studies quantitative deviation bounds for statistical ensembles evolving under the one-parameter flow of a nearly integrable Hamiltonian system. Combining Nekhoroshev-type stability estimates with phase-mixing arguments, we…
We derive generalization error bounds for traditional time-series forecasting models. Our results hold for many standard forecasting tools including autoregressive models, moving average models, and, more generally, linear state-space…
We construct a novel estimator for the diffusion coefficient of the limiting homogenized equation, when observing the slow dynamics of a multiscale model, in the case when the slow dynamics are of bounded variation. Previous research…