Related papers: A Finite-Sample Deviation Bound for Stable Autoreg…
We derive new and improved non-asymptotic deviation inequalities for the sample average approximation (SAA) of an optimization problem. Our results give strong error probability bounds that are "sub-Gaussian"~even when the randomness of the…
Regularly varying stochastic processes model extreme dependence between process values at different locations and/or time points. For such processes we propose a two-step parameter estimation of the extremogram, when some part of the domain…
A central tool in the study of nonhomogeneous random matrices, the noncommutative Khintchine inequality, yields a nonasymptotic bound on the spectral norm of general Gaussian random matrices $X=\sum_i g_i A_i$ where $g_i$ are independent…
The aim of this paper is to provide conditions which ensure that the affinely transformed partial sums of a strictly stationary process converge in distribution to an infinite variance stable distribution. Conditions for this convergence to…
This paper investigates the approximation of Gaussian random variables in Banach spaces, focusing on the high-probability bounds for the approximation of Gaussian random variables using finitely many observations. We derive non-asymptotic…
In this paper, we present the asymptotic properties of the moment estimator for autoregressive (AR for short) models subject to Markovian changes in regime under the assumption that the errors are uncorrelated but not necessarily…
Covariance parameter estimation of Gaussian processes is analyzed in an asymptotic framework. The spatial sampling is a randomly perturbed regular grid and its deviation from the perfect regular grid is controlled by a single scalar…
We consider the problem of estimating the parameters of a linear univariate autoregressive model with sub-Gaussian innovations from a limited sequence of consecutive observations. Assuming that the parameters are compressible, we analyze…
We derive finite time error bounds for estimating general linear time-invariant (LTI) systems from a single observed trajectory using the method of least squares. We provide the first analysis of the general case when eigenvalues of the LTI…
We consider the problem of finding confidence intervals for the risk of forecasting the future of a stationary, ergodic stochastic process, using a model estimated from the past of the process. We show that a bootstrap procedure provides…
Stochastic approximation is a powerful class of algorithms with celebrated success. However, a large body of previous analysis focuses on stochastic approximations driven by contractive operators, which is not applicable in some important…
This article develops the asymptotic distribution of the least squares estimator of the model parameters in periodicvector autoregressive time series models (hereafter PVAR) with uncorrelated but dependent innovations. When theinnovations…
The non-asymptotic tail bounds of random variables play crucial roles in probability, statistics, and machine learning. Despite much success in developing upper bounds on tail probability in literature, the lower bounds on tail…
This paper presents uniform-in-time finite-sample bounds for regularized linear regression with vector-valued outputs and conditionally zero-mean subgaussian noise. By revisiting classical self-normalized martingale arguments, we obtain…
We consider the problem of threshold estimation for autoregressive time series with a "space switching" in the situation, when the regression is nonlinear and the innovations have a smooth, possibly non Gaussian, probability density.…
This paper develops a unified finite-time theory for the ordinary least squares estimation of possibly unstable and even slightly explosive vector autoregressive models under linear restrictions, with the applicable region $\rho(A)\leq…
We consider maximum likelihood estimation for both causal and noncausal autoregressive time series processes with non-Gaussian $\alpha$-stable noise. A nondegenerate limiting distribution is given for maximum likelihood estimators of the…
The goal of this paper is to propose a new approach to asymptotic analysis of the finite predictor for stationary sequences. It produces the exact asymptotics of the relative prediction error and the partial correlation coefficients. The…
We develop an estimator for the high-dimensional covariance matrix of a locally stationary process with a smoothly varying trend and use this statistic to derive consistent predictors in non-stationary time series. In contrast to the…
We study the problem of parameter estimation for reflected stochastic processes driven by a standard Brownian motion. The estimator is obtained using nonlinear least squares method based on discretely observed processes. Under some certain…