Related papers: Changing reference measure in Bayes spaces with ap…
Bayesian optimization (BO) is a sample-efficient method and has been widely used for optimizing expensive black-box functions. Recently, there has been a considerable interest in BO literature in optimizing functions that are affected by…
Imagine that you could calculate of posttest probabilities, i.e. Bayes theorem with simple addition. This is possible if we stop thinking of probabilities as ranging from 0 to 1.0. There is a naturally occurring linear probability space…
Sensitivity analysis of a numerical model, for instance simulating physical phenomena, is useful to quantify the influence of the inputs on the model responses. This paper proposes a new sensitivity index, based upon the modification of the…
In this paper we focus on a type of inverse problem in which the data is expressed as an unknown function of the sought and unknown model function (or its discretised representation as a model parameter vector). In particular, we deal with…
Robust Bayesian analysis has been mainly devoted to detecting and measuring robustness w.r.t. the prior distribution. Many contributions in the literature aim to define suitable classes of priors which allow the computation of variations of…
We discuss the Bayesian approach to the solution of inverse problems and apply the formalism to analyse the closure tests performed by the NNPDF collaboration. Starting from a comparison with the approach that is currently used for the…
Context: Statistical properties of the cosmic density fields are to a large extent encoded in the shape of the one-point density probability distribution functions (PDF). In order to successfully exploit such observables, a detailed…
Bayesian field theory denotes a nonparametric Bayesian approach for learning functions from observational data. Based on the principles of Bayesian statistics, a particular Bayesian field theory is defined by combining two models: a…
In this paper the Bayesian analysis is applied to assign a probability density to the value of a quantity having a definite sign. This analysis is logically consistent with the results, positive or negative, of repeated measurements.…
Bayes [Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. 53 (1763) 370--418; 54 296--325] introduced the observed likelihood function to statistical inference and provided a weight function to calibrate the parameter; he also introduced a confidence…
Density regression provides a flexible strategy for modeling the distribution of a response variable $Y$ given predictors $\mathbf{X}=(X_1,\ldots,X_p)$ by letting that the conditional density of $Y$ given $\mathbf{X}$ as a completely…
Stochastic resetting is a rapidly developing topic in the field of stochastic processes and their applications. It denotes the occasional reset of a diffusing particle to its starting point and effects, inter alia, optimal first-passage…
If two probability density functions (PDFs) have values for their first $n$ moments which are quite close to each other (upper bounds of their differences are known), can it be expected that the PDFs themselves are very similar? Shown below…
In this paper, we develop a quantile functional regression modeling framework that models the distribution of a set of common repeated observations from a subject through the quantile function, which is regressed on a set of covariates to…
When performing Bayesian inference, we frequently need to work with conditional probability densities. For example, the posterior function is the conditional density of the parameters given the data. Some might worry that conditional…
Prediction is a central task of statistics and machine learning, yet many inferential settings provide only partial information, typically in the form of moment constraints or estimating equations. We develop a finite, fully Bayesian…
Standard regression approaches assume that some finite number of the response distribution characteristics, such as location and scale, change as a (parametric or nonparametric) function of predictors. However, it is not always appropriate…
This paper proposes a novel framework for the approximation and analysis of circular density data using compositional periodic splines within Bayes spaces with the Hilbert space structure. By applying the centered log-ratio transformation,…
The interpretation of data in terms of multi-parameter models of new physics, using the Bayesian approach, requires the construction of multi-parameter priors. We propose a construction that uses elements of Bayesian reference analysis. Our…
Inferences about hypotheses are ubiquitous in the cognitive sciences. Bayes factors provide one general way to compare different hypotheses by their compatibility with the observed data. Those quantifications can then also be used to choose…