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We introduce $\textit{Backward Conformal Prediction}$, a method that guarantees conformal coverage while providing flexible control over the size of prediction sets. Unlike standard conformal prediction, which fixes the coverage level and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-13 Etienne Gauthier , Francis Bach , Michael I. Jordan

Sparse high dimensional graphical model selection is a topic of much interest in modern day statistics. A popular approach is to apply l1-penalties to either (1) parametric likelihoods, or, (2) regularized regression/pseudo-likelihoods,…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-04 Kshitij Khare , Sang-Yun Oh , Bala Rajaratnam

We study the empirical likelihood approach to construct confidence intervals for the optimal value and the optimality gap of a given solution, henceforth quantify the statistical uncertainty of sample average approximation, for optimization…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-10-25 Henry Lam , Enlu Zhou

We develop likelihood-based bias reduction for nonlinear panel models with additive individual and time effects. In two-way panels, integrated-likelihood corrections are attractive but challenging because the required integration is high…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-07 Zizhong Yan , Zhengyu Zhang , Mingli Chen , Jingrong Li , Iván Fernández-Val

We establish upper bounds for the expected excess risk of models trained by proper iterative algorithms which approximate the local minima. Unlike the results built upon the strong globally strongly convexity or global growth conditions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-11 Mingyang Yi , Ruoyu Wang , Zhi-Ming Ma

Statistical analyses of multipopulation studies often use the data to select a particular population as the target of inference. For example, a confidence interval may be constructed for a population only in the event that its sample mean…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-09-18 Peter Hoff , Surya Tokdar

A composite likelihood is a non-genuine likelihood function that allows to make inference on limited aspects of a model, such as marginal or conditional distributions. Composite likelihoods are not proper likelihoods and need therefore…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-06 Michele Lambardi di San Miniato , Nicola Sartori

Constrained non-convex optimization problems frequently arise in control applications. Solving such problems is inherently challenging, as existing methods often converge to suboptimal local minima or incur prohibitive computational costs.…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-01-27 Anran Li , John P. Swensen , Mehdi Hosseinzadeh

Computational capability often falls short when confronted with massive data, posing a common challenge in establishing a statistical model or statistical inference method dealing with big data. While subsampling techniques have been…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-31 Yixiao Ruan , Zan Li , Zhaohui Li , Dennis K. J. Lin , Qingpei Hu , Dan Yu

We investigate a generalized empirical likelihood approach in a two-group setting where the constraints on parameters have a form of U-statistics. In this situation, the summands that consist of the constraints for the empirical likelihood…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-05-04 Jihnhee Yu , Luge Yang , Albert Vexler , Alan D. Hutson

Empirical likelihood method has been applied to short-memory time series models by Monti (1997) through the Whittle's estimation method. Yau (2012) extended this idea to long-memory time series models. Asymptotic distributions of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-04-22 Ramadha D. Piyadi Gamage , Wei Ning , Arjun K. Gupta

Data augmentation is often used to incorporate inductive biases into models. Traditionally, these are hand-crafted and tuned with cross validation. The Bayesian paradigm for model selection provides a path towards end-to-end learning of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-02 Pola Schwöbel , Martin Jørgensen , Sebastian W. Ober , Mark van der Wilk

The block bootstrap confidence interval based on dependent data can outperform the computationally more convenient normal approximation only with non-trivial Studentization which, in the case of complicated statistics, calls for highly…

Methodology · Statistics 2008-04-29 Stephen M. S. Lee , P. Y. Lai

Conformal Prediction methods have finite-sample distribution-free marginal coverage guarantees. However, they generally do not offer conditional coverage guarantees, which can be important for high-stakes decisions. In this paper, we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-09-27 Ruijiang Gao , Mingzhang Yin , James McInerney , Nathan Kallus

For the estimation of cumulative link models for ordinal data, the bias-reducing adjusted score equations in \citet{firth:93} are obtained, whose solution ensures an estimator with smaller asymptotic bias than the maximum likelihood…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-16 Ioannis Kosmidis

The recently developed Distributed Block Proximal Method, for solving stochastic big-data convex optimization problems, is studied in this paper under the assumption of constant stepsizes and strongly convex (possibly non-smooth) local…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-03-06 Francesco Farina , Giuseppe Notarstefano

In observational causal inference, domain knowledge often leaves multiple covariate adjustments plausible, yet which sets satisfy ignorability is untestable. Different adjustment sets can yield conflicting estimates of the average treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-23 Aditya Ghosh , Dominik Rothenhäusler

We analyze the problem of discrete distribution estimation under $\ell_1$ loss. We provide non-asymptotic upper and lower bounds on the maximum risk of the empirical distribution (the maximum likelihood estimator), and the minimax risk in…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2015-12-31 Yanjun Han , Jiantao Jiao , Tsachy Weissman

Distributionally robust optimization (DRO) is a worst-case framework for stochastic optimization under uncertainty that has drawn fast-growing studies in recent years. When the underlying probability distribution is unknown and observed…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-08-16 Shengyi He , Henry Lam

Sampling biases in training data are a major source of algorithmic biases in machine learning systems. Although there are many methods that attempt to mitigate such algorithmic biases during training, the most direct and obvious way is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-04-15 Laura Niss , Yuekai Sun , Ambuj Tewari