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Fantasy Premier League engages the football community in selecting the Premier League players who will perform best from gameweek to gameweek. Access to accurate performance forecasts gives participants an edge over competitors by guiding…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-15 Daniel Groos

The performance of football players in English Premier League varies largely from season to season and for different teams. It is evident that a method capable of forecasting and analyzing the future of these players on-field antics shall…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2019-10-01 Akhil Gupta

In all competitions where results are based upon an individual's performance the question of whether the outcome is a consequence of skill or luck arises. We explore this question through an analysis of a large dataset of approximately one…

Physics and Society · Physics 2021-06-09 Joseph D. O'Brien , James P. Gleeson , David J. P. O'Sullivan

Fantasy sports allow fans to manage a team of their favorite athletes and compete with friends. The fantasy platform aligns the real-world statistical performance of athletes to fantasy scoring and has steadily risen in popularity to an…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-11-05 Aaron Baughman , Micah Forester , Jeff Powell , Eduardo Morales , Shaun McPartlin , Daniel Bohm

This paper aims to reduce randomness in football by analysing the role of lineups in final scores using machine learning prediction models we have developed. Football clubs invest millions of dollars on lineups and knowing how individual…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-18 George Peters , Diogo Pacheco

Fantasy football is a billion-dollar industry with millions of participants. Under a fixed budget, managers select squads to maximize future Fantasy Premier League (FPL) points. This study formulates lineup selection as data-driven…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-01-06 Danial Ramezani , Tai Dinh

In this paper, we present a new application-focused benchmark dataset and results from a set of baseline Natural Language Processing and Machine Learning models for prediction of match outcomes for games of football (soccer). By doing so we…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2020-12-09 Ryan Beal , Stuart E. Middleton , Timothy J. Norman , Sarvapali D. Ramchurn

We undertake extensive analysis of English Premier League data over the period 2009/10 to 2017/18 to identify and rank key factors affecting the economic and footballing performances of the teams. Alternative end-of-season league tables are…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2024-08-12 Amit K Chattopadhyay , A. Abdul , Sudhir Jain

Daily fantasy sports (DFS) are weekly or daily online contests where real-game performances of individual players are converted to fantasy points (FPTS). Users select players for their lineup to maximize their FPTS within a set player…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-29 Joseph M. Mahoney , Tomasz B. Paniak

The ubiquity of professional sports and specifically the NFL have lead to an increase in popularity for Fantasy Football. Users have many tools at their disposal: statistics, predictions, rankings of experts and even recommendations of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-05-27 Roman Lutz

In this research, we examine the capabilities of different mathematical models to accurately predict various levels of the English football pyramid. Existing work has largely focused on top-level play in European leagues; however, our work…

This paper considers the use of observed and predicted match statistics as inputs to forecasts of the outcomes of football matches. It is shown that, were it possible to know the match statistics in advance, highly informative forecasts of…

Applications · Statistics 2020-01-27 Edward Wheatcroft

This paper presents a groundbreaking model for forecasting English Premier League (EPL) player performance using convolutional neural networks (CNNs). We evaluate Ridge regression, LightGBM and CNNs on the task of predicting upcoming player…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-07 Daniel Frees , Pranav Ravella , Charlie Zhang

The English Premier League is well-known for being not only one of the most popular professional sports leagues in the world, but also one of the toughest competitions to predict. The first purpose of this research was to verify the…

Applications · Statistics 2022-01-05 Quang Nguyen

Fantasy basketball has a rich underlying mathematical structure which makes optimal drafting strategy unclear. A central issue for category leagues is how to aggregate a player's statistics from all categories into a single number…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-10 Zach Rosenof

In many sports, it is commonly believed that the home team has an advantage over the visiting team, known as the home field advantage. Yet its causal effect on team performance is largely unknown. In this paper, we propose a novel causal…

Applications · Statistics 2025-08-18 Chen Wang , Katherine Price , Hengrui Cai , Weining Shen , Zhanrui Cai , Guanyu Hu

We developed an artificial intelligence approach to predict the transfer fee of a football player. This model can help clubs make better decisions about which players to buy and sell, which can lead to improved performance and increased…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-31 Daniil Sulimov

Although the data-driven analysis of football players' performance has been developed for years, most research only focuses on the on-ball event including shots and passes, while the off-ball movement remains a little-explored area in this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-06 Yisheng Pei , Varuna De Silva , Mike Caine

This paper presents a novel approach for optimizing betting strategies in sports gambling by integrating Von Neumann-Morgenstern Expected Utility Theory, deep learning techniques, and advanced formulations of the Kelly Criterion. By…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2023-07-27 Vélez Jiménez , Román Alberto , Lecuanda Ontiveros , José Manuel , Edgar Possani

Based on NFL game data we try to predict the outcome of a play in multiple different ways. An application of this is the following: by plugging in various play options one could determine the best play for a given situation in real time.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-01-05 Brendan Teich , Roman Lutz , Valentin Kassarnig
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