Related papers: Evaluating one-shot tournament predictions
It is informative to evaluate a forecaster's ability to predict outcomes that have a large impact on the forecast user. Although weighted scoring rules have become a well-established tool to achieve this, such scores have been studied…
The outputs of win probability models are often used to evaluate player actions. However, in some sports, such as the popular esport Counter-Strike, there exist important team-level decisions. For example, at the beginning of each round in…
Probabilistic forecasts in the form of probability distributions over future events have become popular in several fields including meteorology, hydrology, economics, and demography. In typical applications, many alternative statistical…
This paper proposes a novel asymmetric continuous probabilistic score (ACPS) for evaluating and comparing density forecasts. It extends the proposed score and defines a weighted version, which emphasizes regions of interest, such as the…
Predicting the outcome of sports events is a hard task. We quantify this difficulty with a coefficient that measures the distance between the observed final results of sports leagues and idealized perfectly balanced competitions in terms of…
Researchers have typically concentrated on analyzing what happens internally in a complex network and using this to distinguish between nodes. However, there has been less effort towards comparing between different networks. In this paper,…
We form a "map of tournaments" by adapting the map framework from the world of elections. By a tournament we mean a complete directed graph where the nodes are the players and an edge points from a winner of a game to the loser (with no…
This paper proposes a model to predict the outcome of the March Madness tournament based on historical NCAA basketball data since 2013. The framework of this project is a simplification of the FiveThrityEight NCAA March Madness prediction…
Predictions of the uncertainty associated with extreme events are a vital component of any prediction system for such events. Consequently, the prediction system ought to be probabilistic in nature, with the predictions taking the form of…
As the technology advances, an ample amount of data is collected in sports with the help of advanced sensors. Sports Analytics is the study of this data to provide a constructive advantage to the team and its players. The game of…
Stochastic transitivity is central for rank aggregation based on pairwise comparison data. The existing models, including the Thurstone, Bradley-Terry (BT), and nonparametric BT models, adopt a strong notion of stochastic transitivity,…
Challenge the Champ is a simple tournament format, where an ordering of the players -- called a seeding -- is decided. The first player in this order is the initial champ, and faces the next player. The outcome of each match decides the…
This paper demonstrates the feasibility of trajectory learning for ensemble forecasts by employing the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) as a loss function. Using the two-scale Lorenz '96 system as a case study, we develop and…
Random forest is a popular prediction approach for handling high dimensional covariates. However, it often becomes infeasible to interpret the obtained high dimensional and non-parametric model. Aiming for obtaining an interpretable…
Probabilistic forecasts are essential for various downstream applications such as business development, traffic planning, and electrical grid balancing. Many of these probabilistic forecasts are performed on time series data that contain…
This paper explores multi-entry strategies for betting pools related to single-elimination tournaments. In such betting pools, participants select winners of games, and their respective score is a weighted sum of the number of correct…
Understanding the properties of games played under computational constraints remains challenging. For example, how do we expect rational (but computationally bounded) players to play games with a prohibitively large number of states, such…
When predicting future events, it is common to issue forecasts that are probabilistic, in the form of probability distributions over the range of possible outcomes. Such forecasts can be evaluated using proper scoring rules. Proper scoring…
Ranking a vector of alternatives on the basis of a series of paired comparisons is a relevant topic in many instances. A popular example is ranking contestants in sport tournaments. To this purpose, paired comparison models such as the…
The paper presents numerical experiments and some theoretical developments in prediction with expert advice (PEA). One experiment deals with predicting electricity consumption depending on temperature and uses real data. As the pattern of…