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We consider risk-averse convex stochastic programs expressed in terms of extended polyhedral risk measures. We derive computable confidence intervals on the optimal value of such stochastic programs using the Robust Stochastic Approximation…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-09-06 Vincent Guigues

We propose a novel method for closed-form predictive distribution modeling with neural nets. In quantifying prediction uncertainty, we build on Evidential Deep Learning, which has been impactful as being both simple to implement and giving…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-01-22 Manuel Haussmann , Sebastian Gerwinn , Melih Kandemir

Bayesian inference is often implemented using approximations, which can yield interval estimates that are too narrow, not fully capturing the uncertainty in the posterior distribution. We address the question of how to adjust these…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-23 Tiffany Cai , Philip Greengard , Ben Goodrich , Andrew Gelman

We revisit Rahimi and Recht (2007)'s kernel random Fourier features (RFF) method through the lens of the PAC-Bayesian theory. While the primary goal of RFF is to approximate a kernel, we look at the Fourier transform as a prior distribution…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-03-28 Gaël Letarte , Emilie Morvant , Pascal Germain

We propose a stochastic approximation method for approximating the efficient frontier of chance-constrained nonlinear programs. Our approach is based on a bi-objective viewpoint of chance-constrained programs that seeks solutions on the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-05-29 Rohit Kannan , James Luedtke

In this paper we consider the problem of maximizing the Area under the ROC curve (AUC) which is a widely used performance metric in imbalanced classification and anomaly detection. Due to the pairwise nonlinearity of the objective function,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-17 Yunwen Lei , Yiming Ying

We study stochastic optimization with data-adaptive sampling schemes to train pairwise learning models. Pairwise learning is ubiquitous, and it covers several popular learning tasks such as ranking, metric learning and AUC maximization. A…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-10 Sijia Zhou , Yunwen Lei , Ata Kabán

We consider the problem of predictive density estimation under Kullback-Leibler loss in a high-dimensional Gaussian model with exact sparsity constraints on the location parameters. We study the first order asymptotic minimax risk of Bayes…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-05-24 Ujan Gangopadhyay , Gourab Mukherjee

In contingency table analysis, sparse data is frequently encountered for even modest numbers of variables, resulting in non-existence of maximum likelihood estimates. A common solution is to obtain regularized estimates of the parameters of…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-11-04 James E. Johndrow , Anirban Bhattacharya

Modern variational inference (VI) uses stochastic gradients to avoid intractable expectations, enabling large-scale probabilistic inference in complex models. VI posits a family of approximating distributions q and then finds the member of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-24 Christian A. Naesseth , Fredrik Lindsten , David Blei

Adversarially robust PAC learning has proved to be challenging, with the currently best known learners [Montasser et al., 2021a] relying on improper methods based on intricate compression schemes, resulting in sample complexity exponential…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-12 Hassan Ashtiani , Vinayak Pathak , Ruth Urner

The Poisson model is frequently employed to describe count data, but in a Bayesian context it leads to an analytically intractable posterior probability distribution. In this work, we analyze a variational Gaussian approximation to the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-02-14 Simon Arridge , Kazufumi Ito , Bangti Jin , Chen Zhang

When uncertainty meets costly information gathering, a fundamental question emerges: which data points should we probe to unlock near-optimal solutions? Sparsification of stochastic packing problems addresses this trade-off. The existing…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2025-12-02 Shaddin Dughmi , Yusuf Hakan Kalayci , Xinyu Liu

We propose data-dependent uniform generalization bounds by approaching the problem from a PAC-Bayesian perspective. We first apply the PAC-Bayesian framework on "random sets" in a rigorous way, where the training algorithm is assumed to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-11 Benjamin Dupuis , Paul Viallard , George Deligiannidis , Umut Simsekli

Computing the conditional mode of a distribution, better known as the $\mathit{maximum\ a\ posteriori}$ (MAP) assignment, is a fundamental task in probabilistic inference. However, MAP estimation is generally intractable, and remains hard…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-23 Matthew Shorvon , Frederik Mallmann-Trenn , David S. Watson

Traditional variable selection methods could fail to be sign consistent when irrepresentable conditions are violated. This is especially critical in high-dimensional settings when the number of predictors exceeds the sample size. In this…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-26 Fei Xue , Annie Qu

When related learning tasks are naturally arranged in a hierarchy, an appealing approach for coping with scarcity of instances is that of transfer learning using a hierarchical Bayes framework. As fully Bayesian computations can be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-06-18 Gal Elidan , Ben Packer , Geremy Heitz , Daphne Koller

For linear inverse problems with Gaussian priors and Gaussian observation noise, the posterior is Gaussian, with mean and covariance determined by the conditioning formula. The covariance is the central object for uncertainty…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-08-13 Giuseppe Carere , Han Cheng Lie

We propose a physics-informed machine learning method for uncertainty quantification in high-dimensional inverse problems. In this method, the states and parameters of partial differential equations (PDEs) are approximated with truncated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-27 Yifei Zong , David Barajas-Solano , Alexandre M. Tartakovsky

Recently, there has been remarkable progress in reinforcement learning (RL) with general function approximation. However, all these works only provide regret or sample complexity guarantees. It is still an open question if one can achieve…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-16 Yue Wu , Jiafan He , Quanquan Gu