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This paper proposes a~simple, yet powerful, method for balancing distributions of covariates for causal inference based on observational studies. The method makes it possible to balance an arbitrary number of quantiles (e.g., medians,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-14 Maciej Beręsewicz

We consider identification and inference for the average treatment effect and heterogeneous treatment effect conditional on observable covariates in the presence of unmeasured confounding. Since point identification of these treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-04 Kan Chen , Jeffrey Zhang , Bingkai Wang , Dylan S. Small

I introduce a simple permutation procedure to test conventional (non-sharp) hypotheses about the effect of a binary treatment in the presence of a finite number of large, heterogeneous clusters when the treatment effect is identified by…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-02-08 Andreas Hagemann

Estimating an individual's potential outcomes under counterfactual treatments is a challenging task for traditional causal inference and supervised learning approaches when the outcome is high-dimensional (e.g. gene expressions, impulse…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-13 Yulun Wu , Layne C. Price , Zichen Wang , Vassilis N. Ioannidis , Robert A. Barton , George Karypis

Standard measures of effect, including the risk ratio, the odds ratio, and the risk difference, are associated with a number of well-described shortcomings, and no consensus exists about the conditions under which investigators should…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-10-08 Anders Huitfeldt , Andrew Goldstein , Sonja A. Swanson

Treatment effect heterogeneity occurs when individual characteristics influence the effect of a treatment. We propose a novel approach that combines prognostic score matching and conditional inference trees to characterize effect…

This study proposes a new Bayesian approach to infer binary treatment effects. The approach treats counterfactual untreated outcomes as missing observations and infers them by completing a matrix composed of realized and potential untreated…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-20 Masahiro Tanaka

Instead of testing for unanimous agreement, I propose learning how broad of a consensus favors one distribution over another (of earnings, productivity, asset returns, test scores, etc.). Specifically, given a sample from each of two…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-08-27 David M. Kaplan

We propose robust methods for inference on the effect of a treatment variable on a scalar outcome in the presence of very many controls. Our setting is a partially linear model with possibly non-Gaussian and heteroscedastic disturbances.…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-10-05 Alexandre Belloni , Victor Chernozhukov , Christian Hansen

Belief functions are a powerful and popular framework for the mathematical characterisation of uncertainty, in particular in situations in which lack of data renders learning a probability distribution for the problem impractical. The first…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-11 Fabio Cuzzolin

This paper develops a finite population framework for analyzing causal effects in settings with imperfect compliance where multiple treatments affect the outcome of interest. Two prominent examples are factorial designs and panel…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-26 Pedro Picchetti

In observational studies, treatments are typically not randomized and therefore estimated treatment effects may be subject to confounding bias. The instrumental variable (IV) design plays the role of a quasi-experimental handle since the IV…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-08-30 Lan Liu , Wang Miao , Baoluo Sun , James Robins , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

Behavioral health interventions, delivered through digital platforms, have the potential to significantly improve health outcomes, through education, motivation, reminders, and outreach. We study the problem of optimizing personalized…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-19 Jackie Baek , Justin J. Boutilier , Vivek F. Farias , Jonas Oddur Jonasson , Erez Yoeli

This paper describes three methods for carrying out non-asymptotic inference on partially identified parameters that are solutions to a class of optimization problems. Applications in which the optimization problems arise include estimation…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-02 Joel L. Horowitz , Sokbae Lee

The fundamental problem in treatment effect estimation from observational data is confounder identification and balancing. Most of the previous methods realized confounder balancing by treating all observed pre-treatment variables as…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-13 Anpeng Wu , Kun Kuang , Junkun Yuan , Bo Li , Runze Wu , Qiang Zhu , Yueting Zhuang , Fei Wu

We provide an approach to exploratory data analysis in matched observational studies with a single intervention and multiple endpoints. In such settings, the researcher would like to explore evidence for actual treatment effects among these…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-10 Mengqi Lin , Colin Fogarty

In this paper, we propose a robust method to estimate the average treatment effects in observational studies when the number of potential confounders is possibly much greater than the sample size. We first use a class of penalized…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-12-21 Yang Ning , Sida Peng , Kosuke Imai

It is generally believed that bias is minimized in well-controlled randomized clinical trials. However, bias can arise in active controlled noninferiority trials because the inference relies on a previously estimated effect size obtained…

Applications · Statistics 2013-12-02 Lei Nie , Zhiwei Zhang , Daniel Rubin , Jianxiong Chu

Long-term adherence to medication is a critical factor in preventing chronic diseases, such as cardiovascular disease. To address poor adherence, physicians may recommend adherence-improving interventions; however, such interventions are…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-02-24 Daniel Otero-Leon , Mariel Lavieri , Brian Denton , Jeremy Sussman , Rodney Hayward

Scientific researchers utilize randomized experiments to draw casual statements. Most early studies as well as current work on experiments with sequential intervention decisions has been focusing on estimating the causal effects among…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-27 Jingying Zeng