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With rapid adoption of deep learning in critical applications, the question of when and how much to trust these models often arises, which drives the need to quantify the inherent uncertainties. While identifying all sources that account…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-22 Jayaraman J. Thiagarajan , Bindya Venkatesh , Prasanna Sattigeri , Peer-Timo Bremer

The accurate representation of epistemic uncertainty is a challenging yet essential task in machine learning. A widely used representation corresponds to convex sets of probabilistic predictors, also known as credal sets. One popular way of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-30 Mira Jürgens , Thomas Mortier , Eyke Hüllermeier , Viktor Bengs , Willem Waegeman

We consider the problem of inferring an unknown number of clusters in replicated multinomial data. Under a model based clustering point of view, this task can be treated by estimating finite mixtures of multinomial distributions with or…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-07 Panagiotis Papastamoulis

In cluster analysis, it can be useful to interpret the partition built from the data in the light of external categorical variables which were not directly involved to cluster the data. An approach is proposed in the model-based clustering…

Cluster analysis is a popular unsupervised learning tool used in many disciplines to identify heterogeneous sub-populations within a sample. However, validating cluster analysis results and determining the number of clusters in a data set…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-04-26 Ali Turfah , Xiaoquan Wen

A model based clustering procedure for data of mixed type, clustMD, is developed using a latent variable model. It is proposed that a latent variable, following a mixture of Gaussian distributions, generates the observed data of mixed type.…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-11-06 Damien McParland , Isobel Claire Gormley

Within the framework of evidence theory, the confidence functions of different information can be combined into a combined confidence function to solve uncertain problems. The Dempster combination rule is a classic method of fusing…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-08-09 Tianxiang Zhan , Fuyuan Xiao

Bootstrap is a useful tool for making statistical inference, but it may provide erroneous results under complex survey sampling. Most studies about bootstrap-based inference are developed under simple random sampling and stratified random…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-01-08 Zhonglei Wang , Jae Kwang Kim , Liuhua Peng

Variational inference is a general approach for approximating complex density functions, such as those arising in latent variable models, popular in machine learning. It has been applied to approximate the maximum likelihood estimator and…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-04-19 Yen-Chi Chen , Y. Samuel Wang , Elena A. Erosheva

Understanding and quantifying uncertainty in black box Neural Networks (NNs) is critical when deployed in real-world settings such as healthcare. Recent works using Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods have shown how a unified predictive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-29 Utkarsh Sarawgi , Wazeer Zulfikar , Rishab Khincha , Pattie Maes

A cluster tree provides a highly-interpretable summary of a density function by representing the hierarchy of its high-density clusters. It is estimated using the empirical tree, which is the cluster tree constructed from a density…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-02-14 Jisu Kim , Yen-Chi Chen , Sivaraman Balakrishnan , Alessandro Rinaldo , Larry Wasserman

Multiple systems estimation using a Poisson loglinear model is a standard approach to quantifying hidden populations where data sources are based on lists of known cases. Information criteria are often used for selecting between the large…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-23 Bernard W. Silverman , Lax Chan , Kyle Vincent

The bootstrap, introduced by Efron (1982), has become a very popular method for estimating variances and constructing confidence intervals. A key insight is that one can approximate the properties of estimators by using the empirical…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-01-29 Guido Imbens , Konrad Menzel

Cluster analysis requires many decisions: the clustering method and the implied reference model, the number of clusters and, often, several hyper-parameters and algorithms' tunings. In practice, one produces several partitions, and a final…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-08-14 Luca Coraggio , Pietro Coretto

Many clustering schemes are defined by optimizing an objective function defined on the partitions of the underlying set of a finite metric space. In this paper, we construct a framework for studying what happens when we instead impose…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2010-12-01 Gunnar Carlsson , Facundo Memoli

Trust calibration is necessary to ensure appropriate user acceptance in advanced automation technologies. A significant challenge to achieve trust calibration is to quantitatively estimate human trust in real-time. Although multiple trust…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2023-04-17 Jundi Liu , Kumar Akash , Teruhisa Misu , Xingwei Wu

In this paper we extend an earlier result within Dempster-Shafer theory ["Fast Dempster-Shafer Clustering Using a Neural Network Structure," in Proc. Seventh Int. Conf. Information Processing and Management of Uncertainty in Knowledge-Based…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-11-15 Johan Schubert

When reasoning with uncertainty there are many situations where evidences are not only uncertain but their propositions may also be weakly specified in the sense that it may not be certain to which event a proposition is referring. It is…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2007-05-23 Johan Schubert

Motivated by the problem of accurately predicting gap times between successive blood donations, we present here a general class of Bayesian nonparametric models for clustering. These models allow for prediction of new recurrences,…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-18 Raffaele Argiento , Riccardo Corradin , Alessandra Guglielmi , Ettore Lanzarone

Time-to-event analysis provides insights into clinical prognosis and treatment recommendations. However, this task is more challenging than standard regression problems due to the presence of censored observations. Additionally, the lack of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-16 Ling Huang , Yucheng Xing , Swapnil Mishra , Thierry Denoeux , Mengling Feng