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Anomaly detection is a widely studied task for a broad variety of data types; among them, multiple time series appear frequently in applications, including for example, power grids and traffic networks. Detecting anomalies for multiple time…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-10 Enyan Dai , Jie Chen

We propose the Bayesian bridge estimator for regularized regression and classification. Two key mixture representations for the Bayesian bridge model are developed: (1) a scale mixture of normals with respect to an alpha-stable random…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-10-30 Nicholas G. Polson , James G. Scott , Jesse Windle

This paper is on Bayesian inference for parametric statistical models that are defined by a stochastic simulator which specifies how data is generated. Exact sampling is then possible but evaluating the likelihood function is typically…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-03-02 Borislav Ikonomov , Michael U. Gutmann

In recent literature, the Gaussian Graphical model (GGM; Lauritzen, 1996),a network of partial correlation coefficients, has been used to capture potential dynamic relationships between observed variables. The GGM can be estimated using…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-09-25 Sacha Epskamp

Normalizing flows are a popular class of models for approximating probability distributions. However, their invertible nature limits their ability to model target distributions whose support have a complex topological structure, such as…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-02-25 Vincent Stimper , Bernhard Schölkopf , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato

This paper develops a Bayesian computational platform at the interface between posterior sampling and optimization in models whose marginal likelihoods are difficult to evaluate. Inspired by adversarial optimization, namely Generative…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-12-01 Tetsuya Kaji , Veronika Rockova

Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) offer a principled and natural framework for proper uncertainty quantification in the context of deep learning. They address the typical challenges associated with conventional deep learning methods, such as…

Computation · Statistics 2024-11-13 Zahra Moslemi , Yang Meng , Shiwei Lan , Babak Shahbaba

In a previous paper (gr-qc/0105100) we derived a set of near-optimal signal detection techniques for gravitational wave detectors whose noise probability distributions contain non-Gaussian tails. The methods modify standard methods by…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2009-11-07 Bruce Allen , Jolien D. E. Creighton , Eanna E. Flanagan , Joseph D. Romano

In Bayesian statistics, many problems can be expressed as the evaluation of the expectation of a quantity of interest with respect to the posterior distribution. Standard Monte Carlo method is often not applicable because the encountered…

Computation · Statistics 2011-10-11 James L. Beck , Konstantin M. Zuev

Normalizing flows can transform a simple prior probability distribution into a more complex target distribution. Here, we evaluate the ability and efficiency of generative machine learning methods to sample the Boltzmann distribution of an…

Soft Condensed Matter · Physics 2024-09-16 Gerhard Jung , Giulio Biroli , Ludovic Berthier

Probabilistic graphical models are a key tool in machine learning applications. Computing the partition function, i.e., normalizing constant, is a fundamental task of statistical inference but it is generally computationally intractable,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-01-29 Sungsoo Ahn , Michael Chertkov , Adrian Weller , Jinwoo Shin

Normalizing Flows (NFs) are universal density estimators based on Neural Networks. However, this universality is limited: the density's support needs to be diffeomorphic to a Euclidean space. In this paper, we propose a novel method to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-02 Christian Horvat , Jean-Pascal Pfister

Along with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, variational inference (VI) has emerged as a central computational approach to large-scale Bayesian inference. Rather than sampling from the true posterior $\pi$, VI aims at producing a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-04-24 Marc Lambert , Sinho Chewi , Francis Bach , Silvère Bonnabel , Philippe Rigollet

We present the learned harmonic mean estimator with normalizing flows - a robust, scalable and flexible estimator of the Bayesian evidence for model comparison. Since the estimator is agnostic to sampling strategy and simply requires…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2025-10-28 Alicja Polanska , Matthew A. Price , Davide Piras , Alessio Spurio Mancini , Jason D. McEwen

Normalizing flows are an established approach for modelling complex probability densities through invertible transformations from a base distribution. However, the accuracy with which the target distribution can be captured by the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-02 Harry Bevins , Will Handley , Thomas Gessey-Jones

Bayesian Neural Networks (BayNNs) naturally provide uncertainty in their predictions, making them a suitable choice in safety-critical applications. Additionally, their realization using memristor-based in-memory computing (IMC)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-24 Soyed Tuhin Ahmed , Kamal Danouchi , Guillaume Prenat , Lorena Anghel , Mehdi B. Tahoori

We introduce a novel combination of Bayesian Models (BMs) and Neural Networks (NNs) for making predictions with a minimum expected risk. Our approach combines the best of both worlds, the data efficiency and interpretability of a BM with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-28 Mathias Löwe , Per Lunnemann Hansen , Sebastian Risi

We present an accelerated pipeline, based on high-performance computing techniques and normalizing flows, for joint Bayesian parameter estimation and model selection and demonstrate its efficiency in gravitational wave astrophysics. We…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2024-11-01 Alicja Polanska , Thibeau Wouters , Peter T. H. Pang , Kaze K. W. Wong , Jason D. McEwen

Sampling from multi-modal distributions and estimating marginal likelihoods, also known as evidences and normalizing constants, are well-known challenges in statistical computation. They can be overcome by nested sampling, which evolves a…

Computation · Statistics 2025-05-26 Andrew Fowlie

Gaussian boson sampling (GBS), a computational problem conjectured to be hard to simulate on a classical machine, has been at the forefront of recent years' experimental and theoretical efforts to demonstrate quantum advantage. The…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2024-02-05 Gabriele Bressanini , Benoit Seron , Leonardo Novo , Nicolas J. Cerf , M. S. Kim
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