Related papers: A Regularized Factor-augmented Vector Autoregressi…
Tensor time series data appears naturally in a lot of fields, including finance and economics. As a major dimension reduction tool, similar to its factor model counterpart, the idiosyncratic components of a tensor time series factor model…
As a special infinite-order vector autoregressive (VAR) model, the vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) model can capture much richer temporal patterns than the widely used finite-order VAR model. However, its practicality has long…
Causal models seek to unravel the cause-effect relationships among variables from observed data, as opposed to mere mappings among them, as traditional regression models do. This paper introduces a novel causal discovery algorithm designed…
One popular approach for nonstructural economic and financial forecasting is to include a large number of economic and financial variables, which has been shown to lead to significant improvements for forecasting, for example, by the…
We propose modeling raw functional data as a mixture of a smooth function and a high-dimensional factor component. The conventional approach to retrieving the smooth function from the raw data is through various smoothing techniques.…
Estimating the covariance of asset returns, i.e., the risk model, is a key component of financial portfolio construction and evaluation. Most risk modeling approaches produce a factor model that decomposes the asset variability into two…
We propose a novel framework for analyzing multivariate time series (MTS) data by integrating non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) with vector autoregression (VAR). Termed NMF-VAR, this method models the coefficient matrix of NMF as a…
This paper considers estimation and model selection of quantile vector autoregression (QVAR). Conventional quantile regression often yields undesirable crossing quantile curves, violating the monotonicity of quantiles. To address this…
This paper introduces a straightforward sieve-based approach for estimating and conducting inference on regression parameters in panel data models with interactive fixed effects. The method's key assumption is that factor loadings can be…
The nonlinear vector autoregressive (NVAR) model provides an appealing framework to analyze multivariate time series obtained from a nonlinear dynamical system. However, the innovation (or error), which plays a key role by driving the…
High-dimensional time series data appear in many scientific areas in the current data-rich environment. Analysis of such data poses new challenges to data analysts because of not only the complicated dynamic dependence between the series,…
In this paper we estimate the conditional value-at-risk by fitting different multivariate parametric models capturing some stylized facts about multivariate financial time series of equity returns: heavy tails, negative skew, asymmetric…
In practice functional data are sampled on a discrete set of observation points and often susceptible to noise. We consider in this paper the setting where such data are used as explanatory variables in a regression problem. If the primary…
We develop a non-parametric multivariate time series model that remains agnostic on the precise relationship between a (possibly) large set of macroeconomic time series and their lagged values. The main building block of our model is a…
We consider reduced-rank modeling of the white noise covariance matrix in a large dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) model. We first propose the reduced-rank covariance estimator under the setting where independent observations are…
Conventional wisdom suggests that autoregressive models are used to process discrete data. When applied to continuous modalities such as visual data, Visual AutoRegressive modeling (VAR) typically resorts to quantization-based approaches to…
Motivated by Tucker tensor decomposition, this paper imposes low-rank structures to the column and row spaces of coefficient matrices in a multivariate infinite-order vector autoregression (VAR), which leads to a supervised factor model…
Pervasive cross-section dependence is increasingly recognized as a characteristic of economic data and the approximate factor model provides a useful framework for analysis. Assuming a strong factor structure where $\Lop\Lo/N^\alpha$ is…
Here we dispel the lingering myth that Partial Directed Coherence is a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Modelling dependent concept. In fact, our examples show that it is spectral factorization that lies at its heart, for which VAR modelling is…
Physical activity (PA) intervention studies often collect repeated intensity measurements over long observation periods. Quantifying the variation in intervention effects over the study period is critical to evaluating and improving…