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Robust estimation for modern portfolio selection on a large set of assets becomes more important due to large deviation of empirical inference on big data. We propose a distributionally robust methodology for high-dimensional mean-variance…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-12 Ruike Wu , Yanrong Yang , Han Lin Shang , Huanjun Zhu

Multivariate shortfall risk measures provide a principled framework for quantifying systemic risk and determining capital allocations prior to aggregation in interconnected financial systems. Despite their well established theoretical…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-03-09 Chiheb Ben Hammouda , Truong Ngoc Nguyen

Many problems require to approximate an expected value by some kind of Monte Carlo (MC) sampling, e.g. molecular dynamics (MD) or simulation of stochastic reaction models (also termed kinetic Monte Carlo (kMC)). Often, we are furthermore…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-02-18 Sandra Döpking , Sebastian Matera

In this article we consider the approximation of expectations w.r.t. probability distributions associated to the solution of partial differential equations (PDEs); this scenario appears routinely in Bayesian inverse problems. In practice,…

Computation · Statistics 2017-02-07 Alexandros Beskos , Ajay Jasra , Kody Law , Raul Tempone , Yan Zhou

When dealing with difficult inverse problems such as inverse rendering, using Monte Carlo estimated gradients to optimise parameters can slow down convergence due to variance. Averaging many gradient samples in each iteration reduces this…

Graphics · Computer Science 2023-09-28 Martin Balint , Karol Myszkowski , Hans-Peter Seidel , Gurprit Singh

This paper concerns the approximation of smooth, high-dimensional functions from limited samples using polynomials. This task lies at the heart of many applications in computational science and engineering - notably, some of those arising…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-11-07 Ben Adcock , Simone Brugiapaglia

The valuation of over-the-counter derivatives is subject to a series of valuation adjustments known as xVA, which pose additional risks for financial institutions. Associated risk measures, such as the value-at-risk of an underlying…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-05-24 Michael B. Giles , Abdul-Lateef Haji-Ali , Jonathan Spence

Monte Carlo (MC) techniques are often used to estimate integrals of a multivariate function using randomly generated samples of the function. In light of the increasing interest in uncertainty quantification and robust design applications…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2011-08-25 Brendan Tracey , David Wolpert , Juan J. Alonso

Monte Carlo (MC) sampling algorithms are an extremely widely-used technique to estimate expectations of functions f(x), especially in high dimensions. Control variates are a very powerful technique to reduce the error of such estimates, but…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-06-08 Brendan D. Tracey , David H. Wolpert

We propose Subsampling MCMC, a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) framework where the likelihood function for $n$ observations is estimated from a random subset of $m$ observations. We introduce a highly efficient unbiased estimator of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-12-31 Matias Quiroz , Robert Kohn , Mattias Villani , Minh-Ngoc Tran

By adopting a Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) framework, we show that only a handful of costly fine scale computations are needed to accurately estimate statistics of the failure of a composite structure, as opposed to the thousands typically…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-07-25 T. J. Dodwell , S. Kinston , R. Butler , R. T. Haftka , Nam H. Kim , R. Scheichl

In this paper, we aim to compute numerical approximation integral by using an adaptive Monte Carlo algorithm. We propose a stratified sampling algorithm based on an iterative method which splits the strata following some quantities called…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2015-07-22 Toni Sayah

In this paper we present a new approach to control variates for improving computational efficiency of Ensemble Monte Carlo. We present the approach using simulation of paths of a time-dependent nonlinear stochastic equation. The core idea…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2008-09-25 T. Borogovac , F. J. Alexander , P. Vakili

High-dimensional data are routinely collected in many areas. We are particularly interested in Bayesian classification models in which one or more variables are imbalanced. Current Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms for posterior…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-15 Deborshee Sen , Matthias Sachs , Jianfeng Lu , David Dunson

Science and engineering problems subject to uncertainty are frequently both computationally expensive and feature nonsmooth parameter dependence, making standard Monte Carlo too slow, and excluding efficient use of accelerated uncertainty…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-10-01 Per Pettersson , Sebastian Krumscheid

We present a general framework for portfolio risk management in discrete time, based on a replicating martingale. This martingale is learned from a finite sample in a supervised setting. The model learns the features necessary for an…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2022-05-09 Lucio Fernandez-Arjona , Damir Filipović

It is widely known that the performance of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) can degrade quickly when targeting computationally expensive posterior distributions, such as when the sample size is large. This has motivated the search for MCMC…

Computation · Statistics 2024-12-02 James E. Johndrow , Natesh S. Pillai , Aaron Smith

In this paper, we evaluate the performance of the multilevel Monte Carlo method (MLMC) for deterministic and uncertain hyperbolic systems, where randomness is introduced either in the modeling parameters or in the approximation algorithms.…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-01-04 Junpeng Hu , Shi Jin , Jinglai Li , Lei Zhang

A method for the multifidelity Monte Carlo (MFMC) estimation of statistical quantities is proposed which is applicable to computational budgets of any size. Based on a sequence of optimization problems each with a globally minimizing…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-11-15 Anthony Gruber , Max Gunzburger , Lili Ju , Zhu Wang

In this paper we discuss the possibility of using multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods for weak approximation schemes. It turns out that by means of a simple coupling between consecutive time discretisation levels, one can achieve the same…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2014-10-07 Denis Belomestny , Tigran Nagapetyan