Related papers: Sub-sampling and other considerations for efficien…
In this article, we present a review of the recent developments on the topic of Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) algorithm, in the paradigm of applications in financial engineering. We specifically focus on the recent studies conducted in two…
We consider the problem of estimating the probability of a large loss from a financial portfolio, where the future loss is expressed as a conditional expectation. Since the conditional expectation is intractable in most cases, one may…
Estimating risk measures such as large loss probabilities and Value-at-Risk is fundamental in financial risk management and often relies on computationally intensive nested Monte Carlo methods. While Multi-Level Monte Carlo (MLMC)…
Sampling-based approaches are widely used in systems without analytic models to estimate risk or find optimal control. However, gathering sufficient data in such scenarios can be prohibitively costly. On the other hand, in many situations,…
As the size of engineered systems grows, problems in reliability theory can become computationally challenging, often due to the combinatorial growth in the cut sets. In this paper we demonstrate how Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) - a…
In this work, we propose a smart idea to couple importance sampling and Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC). We advocate a per level approach with as many importance sampling parameters as the number of levels, which enables us to compute the…
We design and implement a novel algorithm for computing a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) estimator of the cumulative distribution function of a quantity of interest in problems with random input parameters or initial conditions. Our approach…
In many real-world engineering systems, the performance or reliability of the system is characterised by a scalar parameter. The distribution of this performance parameter is important in many uncertainty quantification problems, ranging…
We investigate the problem of computing a nested expectation of the form $\mathbb{P}[\mathbb{E}[X|Y] \!\geq\!0]\!=\!\mathbb{E}[\textrm{H}(\mathbb{E}[X|Y])]$ where $\textrm{H}$ is the Heaviside function. This nested expectation appears, for…
The problem of optimising functions with intractable gradients frequently arise in machine learning and statistics, ranging from maximum marginal likelihood estimation procedures to fine-tuning of generative models. Stochastic approximation…
Target tracking faces the challenge in coping with large volumes of data which requires efficient methods for real time applications. The complexity considered in this paper is when there is a large number of measurements which are required…
This paper focuses on the study of an original combination of the Multilevel Monte Carlo method introduced by Giles [10] and the popular importance sampling technique. To compute the optimal choice of the parameter involved in the…
In this work, we consider the problem of estimating the probability distribution, the quantile or the conditional expectation above the quantile, the so called conditional-value-at-risk, of output quantities of complex random differential…
This paper considers a new approach to using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) in contexts where one may adopt multilevel (ML) Monte Carlo. The underlying problem is to approximate expectations w.r.t. an underlying probability measure that is…
Monte Carlo methods represent the "de facto" standard for approximating complicated integrals involving multidimensional target distributions. In order to generate random realizations from the target distribution, Monte Carlo techniques use…
We analyse a multilevel Monte Carlo method for the approximation of distribution functions of univariate random variables. Since, by assumption, the target distribution is not known explicitly, approximations have to be used. We provide an…
We consider the numerical approximation of $\mathbb{P}[G\in \Omega]$ where the $d$-dimensional random variable $G$ cannot be sampled directly, but there is a hierarchy of increasingly accurate approximations $\{G_\ell\}_{\ell\in\mathbb{N}}$…
We consider the problem of simulating loss probabilities and conditional excesses for linear asset portfolios under the t-copula model. Although in the literature on market risk management there are papers proposing efficient variance…
Nested Monte Carlo is widely used for risk estimation, but its efficiency is limited by the discontinuity of the indicator function and high computational cost. This paper proposes a nested Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method combined with…
Distortion risk measures play a critical role in quantifying risks associated with uncertain outcomes. Accurately estimating these risk measures in the context of computationally expensive simulation models that lack analytical tractability…