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Climate change is one of the most critical challenges that our planet is facing today. Rising global temperatures are already bringing noticeable changes to Earth's weather and climate patterns with an increased frequency of unpredictable…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-01-19 Karandeep Singh , Chaeyoon Jeong , Naufal Shidqi , Sungwon Park , Arjun Nellikkattil , Elke Zeller , Meeyoung Cha

The under-representation of cloud formation is a long-standing bias associated with climate simulations. Parameterisation schemes are required to capture cloud processes within current climate models but have known biases. We overcome these…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-06-17 Daniel Giles , James Briant , Cyril J. Morcrette , Serge Guillas

AI data-driven models (Graphcast, Pangu Weather, Fourcastnet, and SFNO) are explored for storyline-based climate attribution due to their short inference times, which can accelerate the number of events studied, and provide real time…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-09-19 Jorge Baño-Medina , Agniv Sengupta , Allison Michaelis , Luca Delle Monache , Julie Kalansky , Duncan Watson-Parris

We develop a three-timescale framework for modelling climate change and introduce a space-heterogeneous one-dimensional energy balance model. This model, addressing temperature fluctuations from rising carbon dioxide levels and the…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-08-27 Gianmarco Del Sarto , Franco Flandoli

With rising global temperatures Earth's tipping elements are becoming increasingly more vulnerable to crossing their critical thresholds. The reaching of such tipping points does not only impact other tipping elements through their…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2025-05-08 Tom Bdolach , Jürgen Kurths , Serhiy Yanchuk

Traditional numerical global climate models simulate the full Earth system by exchanging boundary conditions between separate simulators of the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, land surface, and other geophysical processes. This paradigm allows…

Accurate mid-term (weeks to one year) hourly electricity load forecasts are essential for strategic decision-making in power plant operation, ensuring supply security and grid stability, planning and building energy storage systems, and…

Applications · Statistics 2025-05-01 Monika Zimmermann , Florian Ziel

Robots and automated systems are increasingly being introduced to unknown and dynamic environments where they are required to handle disturbances, unmodeled dynamics, and parametric uncertainties. Robust and adaptive control strategies are…

Robotics · Computer Science 2018-08-03 Karime Pereida , Angela Schoellig

Among the most relevant processes in the Earth system for human habitability are quasi-periodic, ocean-driven multi-year events whose dynamics are currently incompletely characterized by physical models, and hence poorly predictable. This…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-08-09 Matthew Bonas , Christopher K. Wikle , Stefano Castruccio

Climate system models (CSMs), through integrating cross-sphere interactions among the atmosphere, ocean, land, and cryosphere, have emerged as pivotal tools for deciphering climate dynamics and improving forecasting capabilities. Recent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-13 Chenguang Zhou , Lei Chen , Xiaohui Zhong , Bo Lu , Hao Li , Libo Wu , Jie Wu , Jiahui Hu , Zesheng Dou , Pang-Chi Hsu , Xiaoye Zhang

We present a model predictive control (MPC) formulation to directly optimize economic criteria for linear constrained systems subject to disturbances and uncertain model parameters. The proposed formulation combines a certainty equivalent…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-09-11 Maximilian Degner , Raffaele Soloperto , Melanie N. Zeilinger , John Lygeros , Johannes Köhler

Modeling globally averaged information on climate forcing from the land surface temperature data, the sea surface temperatures (SST) and the empirically determined relationship between the changes in SST and the turbulent diffusion of heat…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2015-07-20 Stjepan Marčelja

Radiative forcing drives warming in the Earth system, leading to changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and associated radiative feedbacks. The link between changes in the top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) net radiative flux and SST patterns,…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-06-03 Fabrizio Falasca , Aurora Basinski-Ferris , Laure Zanna , Ming Zhao

A central challenge in climate science and applied mathematics is developing data-driven models of multiscale systems that capture both stationary statistics and responses to external perturbations. Current neural climate emulators aim to…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2026-01-27 Fabrizio Falasca

All climate models project that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) will weaken in the 21st century, but most models neglect increasing runoff from the Greenland ice sheet. Greenland meltwater is expected to exacerbate…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-09-30 Oliver Mehling , Katinka Bellomo , Federico Fabiano , Marion Devilliers , Michele Petrini , Susanna Corti , Jost von Hardenberg

Extreme weather is one of the main mechanisms through which climate change will directly impact human society. Coping with such change as a global community requires markedly improved understanding of how global warming drives extreme…

Computational Physics · Physics 2019-09-18 Adam Rupe , Karthik Kashinath , Nalini Kumar , Victor Lee , Prabhat , James P. Crutchfield

Energy system models underpin decisions by energy system planners and operators. Energy system modelling faces a transformation: accounting for changing meteorological conditions imposed by climate change. To enable that transformation, a…

Climate change impacts a broad spectrum of human resources and activities, necessitating the use of climate models to project long-term effects and inform mitigation and adaptation strategies. These models generate multiple datasets by…

Large ensembles of climate projections are essential for characterizing uncertainty in future climate and extreme weather events, yet computational constraints of numerical climate models limit ensemble sizes to a small number of…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-12-01 Francesco Immorlano , Elijah Tavares , Felix Draxler , Padhraic Smyth , Pierre Gentine , Stephan Mandt

The IPCC AR6 assessment of the impacts and risks associated with projected climate changes for the 21st century is both alarming and ambiguous. According to computer projections, the global surface may warm from 1.3 to 8.0 {\deg}C by 2100,…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-01-18 Nicola Scafetta