Related papers: Beyond Forcing Scenarios: Predicting Climate Chang…
The provision of accurate methods for predicting the climate response to anthropogenic and natural forcings is a key contemporary scientific challenge. Using a simplified and efficient open-source general circulation model of the atmosphere…
The sensitivity of climate models to increasing CO2 concentration and the climate response at decadal time scales are still major factors of uncertainty for the assessment of the long and short term effects of anthropogenic climate change.…
Machine Learning has become a pervasive tool in climate science applications. However, current models fail to address nonstationarity induced by anthropogenic alterations in greenhouse emissions and do not routinely quantify the uncertainty…
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a crucial ocean current system, could transition to a weak state. Despite severe associated climate impacts, assessing the AMOC's response under global warming and its proximity to…
The response of the climate system to increased greenhouse gases and other radiative perturbations is governed by a combination of fast and slow feedbacks. Slow feedbacks are typically activated in response to changes in ocean temperatures…
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a tipping element of the climate system. The current estimate of the global warming threshold for the onset of an AMOC collapse is +4.0C (uncertainty range 1.4-8C). However, such a…
The global ocean meridional overturning circulation (GMOC) is central for ocean transport and climate variations. However, a comprehensive picture of its historical mean state and variability remains vague due to limitations in modelling…
We address the issue of resilience of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) given the many indications that this dynamical system is in a multi-stable regime. A novel approach to resilience based on rare event techniques is…
A set of idealized experiments are performed to analyze the competing effects of declining atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the opening of an ocean gateway, and varying orbital parameters. These forcing mechanisms, which influence the global…
How will the climate system respond to anthropogenic forcings? One approach to this question relies on climate model projections. Current climate projections are considerably uncertain. Characterizing and, if possible, reducing this…
Recently the global average temperature has temporarily exceeded the 1.5{\deg}C goal of the Paris Agreement, and so an overshoot of various climate tipping elements becomes increasingly likely. In this study we analyze the physical…
Climate models exhibit an approximately invariant surface warming pattern in typical end-of-century projections. This observation has been used extensively in climate impact assessments for fast calculations of local temperature anomalies,…
Global climate models are essential tools to simulate past and potential future pathways of climate change, as well as associated climate impacts. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) describe a range of future scenarios of global economic…
Complex ocean systems such as the Antarctic Circumpolar Current play key roles in the climate, and current models predict shifts in their strength and area under climate change. However, the physical processes underlying these changes are…
Climate tipping points are critical thresholds in Earth's climate system where a small change can cause abrupt and potentially irreversible shifts towards a new state. Tipping points in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)…
Quantitative estimates of the contributions of the anthropogenic forcing, characterized by changes in the radiative forcing of atmospheric greenhouse gases (CO2, in particular), and solar activity variations to the trends of the global…
Disaster response agencies have been shifting from a paradigm of climate forecasting towards one of anticipatory action: assessing not just what the climate will be, but how it will impact specific populations, thereby enabling proactive…
Anticipating critical transitions in the Earth system is of great societal relevance, yet there may be intrinsic limitations to their predictability. For instance, from the theory of dynamical systems possessing multiple chaotic attractors,…
Climate response metrics are used to quantify the Earth's climate response to anthropogenic changes of atmospheric CO2. Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) is one such metric that measures the equilibrium response to CO2 doubling.…
When the climate system is forced, e.g. by emission of greenhouse gases, it responds on multiple time scales. As temperatures rise, feedback processes might intensify or weaken. Current methods to analyze feedback strength, however, do not…