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This paper presents a novel variational inference framework for deriving a family of Bayesian sparse Gaussian process regression (SGPR) models whose approximations are variationally optimal with respect to the full-rank GPR model enriched…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-03-25 Haibin Yu , Trong Nghia Hoang , Kian Hsiang Low , Patrick Jaillet

While much research effort has been dedicated to scaling up sparse Gaussian process (GP) models based on inducing variables for big data, little attention is afforded to the other less explored class of low-rank GP approximations that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-11-21 Quang Minh Hoang , Trong Nghia Hoang , Kian Hsiang Low

Variable selection in Gaussian processes (GPs) is typically undertaken by thresholding the inverse lengthscales of automatic relevance determination kernels, but in high-dimensional datasets this approach can be unreliable. A more…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-02-25 Hugh Dance , Brooks Paige

Learning expressive kernels while retaining tractable inference remains a central challenge in scaling Gaussian processes (GPs) to large and complex datasets. We propose a scalable GP regressor based on deep basis kernels (DBKs). Our DBK is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-05 Yunqin Zhu , Henry Shaowu Yuchi , Yao Xie

The kernel function and its hyperparameters are the central model selection choice in a Gaussian proces (Rasmussen and Williams, 2006). Typically, the hyperparameters of the kernel are chosen by maximising the marginal likelihood, an…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-11-07 Vidhi Lalchand , Wessel P. Bruinsma , David R. Burt , Carl E. Rasmussen

The Hawkes process (HP) has been widely applied to modeling self-exciting events including neuron spikes, earthquakes and tweets. To avoid designing parametric triggering kernel and to be able to quantify the prediction confidence, the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-05 Rui Zhang , Christian Walder , Marian-Andrei Rizoiu

In decision-making systems, it is important to have classifiers that have calibrated uncertainties, with an optimisation objective that can be used for automated model selection and training. Gaussian processes (GPs) provide uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-03-05 Vincent Dutordoir , Mark van der Wilk , Artem Artemev , James Hensman

We introduce a novel stochastic variational inference method for Gaussian process ($\mathcal{GP}$) regression, by deriving a posterior over a learnable set of coresets: i.e., over pseudo-input/output, weighted pairs. Unlike former free-form…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-06 Mert Ketenci , Adler Perotte , Noémie Elhadad , Iñigo Urteaga

We introduce a novel Bayesian approach for variable selection using Gaussian process regression, which is crucial for enhancing interpretability and model regularization. Our method employs nearest neighbor Gaussian processes, serving as…

Gaussian process (GP) regression is a flexible, nonparametric approach to regression that naturally quantifies uncertainty. In many applications, the number of responses and covariates are both large, and a goal is to select covariates that…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-12 Jian Cao , Joseph Guinness , Marc G. Genton , Matthias Katzfuss

We study the theoretical properties of a variational Bayes method in the Gaussian Process regression model. We consider the inducing variables method introduced by Titsias (2009a) and derive sufficient conditions for obtaining contraction…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-28 Dennis Nieman , Botond Szabo , Harry van Zanten

Variational Bayes (VB) is a popular scalable alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo for Bayesian inference. We study a mean-field spike and slab VB approximation of widely used Bayesian model selection priors in sparse high-dimensional…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-09-07 Kolyan Ray , Botond Szabo , Gabriel Clara

Identifying dynamical system (DS) is a vital task in science and engineering. Traditional methods require numerous calls to the DS solver, rendering likelihood-based or least-squares inference frameworks impractical. For efficient parameter…

Computation · Statistics 2024-09-19 Ying Zhou , Jinglai Li , Xiang Zhou , Hongqiao Wang

Few Bayesian methods for analyzing high-dimensional sparse survival data provide scalable variable selection, effect estimation and uncertainty quantification. Such methods often either sacrifice uncertainty quantification by computing…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-06 Michael Komodromos , Eric Aboagye , Marina Evangelou , Sarah Filippi , Kolyan Ray

Gaussian process regression networks (GPRN) are powerful Bayesian models for multi-output regression, but their inference is intractable. To address this issue, existing methods use a fully factorized structure (or a mixture of such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-05-19 Shibo Li , Wei Xing , Mike Kirby , Shandian Zhe

Gaussian processes (GPs) have gained popularity as flexible machine learning models for regression and function approximation with an in-built method for uncertainty quantification. However, GPs suffer when the amount of training data is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-26 Jonas Latz , Aretha L. Teckentrup , Simon Urbainczyk

Gaussian processes (GPs) provide a framework for Bayesian inference that can offer principled uncertainty estimates for a large range of problems. For example, if we consider regression problems with Gaussian likelihoods, a GP model enjoys…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-21 Felix Leibfried , Vincent Dutordoir , ST John , Nicolas Durrande

Bayesian model updating based on Gaussian Process (GP) models has received attention in recent years, which incorporates kernel-based GPs to provide enhanced fidelity response predictions. Although most kernel functions provide high fitting…

A central challenge in Bayesian inference is efficiently approximating posterior distributions. Stein Variational Gradient Descent (SVGD) is a popular variational inference method which transports a set of particles to approximate a target…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-05 Moritz Melcher , Simon Weissmann , Ashia C. Wilson , Jakob Zech

Accurate tuning of hyperparameters is crucial to ensure that models can generalise effectively across different settings. In this paper, we present theoretical guarantees for hyperparameter selection using variational Bayes in the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-04-07 Dennis Nieman , Botond Szabó
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