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Credible forecasting and representation learning of dynamical systems are of ever-increasing importance for reliable decision-making. To that end, we propose a family of Gaussian processes (GP) for dynamical systems with linear…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-11 Petar Bevanda , Max Beier , Armin Lederer , Alexandre Capone , Stefan Sosnowski , Sandra Hirche

Gaussian processes are a powerful framework for quantifying uncertainty and for sequential decision-making but are limited by the requirement of solving linear systems. In general, this has a cubic cost in dataset size and is sensitive to…

Many real world problems exhibit patterns that have periodic behavior. For example, in astrophysics, periodic variable stars play a pivotal role in understanding our universe. An important step when analyzing data from such processes is the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-08-20 Yuyang Wang , Roni Khardon , Pavlos Protopapas

Gaussian processes are Bayesian non-parametric models used in many areas. In this work, we propose a Non-stationary Heteroscedastic Gaussian process model which can be learned with gradient-based techniques. We demonstrate the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-26 Zeel B Patel , Nipun Batra , Kevin Murphy

Forecasting the evolution of complex systems is one of the grand challenges of modern data science. The fundamental difficulty lies in understanding the structure of the observed stochastic process. In this paper, we show that every…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-01-01 Xiucai Ding , Zhou Zhou

We design a Gaussian Process (GP) spatiotemporal model to capture features of day-ahead wind power forecasts. We work with hourly-scale day-ahead forecasts across hundreds of wind farm locations, with the main aim of constructing a fully…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-26 Qiqi Li , Mike Ludkovski

We examine an analytic variational inference scheme for the Gaussian Process State Space Model (GPSSM) - a probabilistic model for system identification and time-series modelling. Our approach performs variational inference over both the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-12-11 Alessandro Davide Ialongo , Mark van der Wilk , Carl Edward Rasmussen

This paper presents a new fuel cycle benchmarking analysis methodology by coupling Gaussian process regression, a popular technique in Machine Learning, to dynamic time warping, a mechanism widely used in speech recognition. Together they…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-12-01 Anthony Michael Scopatz

The paper deals with the problem of output regulation of nonlinear systems by presenting a learning-based adaptive internal model-based design strategy. We borrow from the adaptive internal model design technique recently proposed in [1]…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-06-27 Lorenzo Gentilini , Michelangelo Bin , Lorenzo Marconi

In this paper, we are concerned with improving the forecast capabilities of the Global approach to Time Series. We assume that the normal techniques of Global mapping are applied, the noise reduction is performed, etc. Then, using the…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2009-11-11 L. M. C. R. Barbosa , L. G. S. Duarte , C. A. Linhares , L. A. C. P. da Mota

The paper addresses the problem of passivation of a class of nonlinear systems where the dynamics are unknown. For this purpose, we use the highly flexible, data-driven Gaussian process regression for the identification of the unknown…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2018-11-19 Thomas Beckers , Sandra Hirche

Learning time-series models is useful for many applications, such as simulation and forecasting. In this study, we consider the problem of actively learning time-series models while taking given safety constraints into account. For…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-12 Christoph Zimmer , Mona Meister , Duy Nguyen-Tuong

The non-stationary evolution of observable quantities in complex systems can frequently be described as a juxtaposition of quasi-stationary spells. Given that standard theoretical and data analysis approaches usually rely on the assumption…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2011-10-18 S. Camargo , S. Duarte Queirós , C. Anteneodo

Forecasting non-stationary time series is a challenging task because their statistical properties often change over time, making it hard for deep models to generalize well. Instance-level normalization techniques can help address shifts in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-09 Junpeng Lin , Tian Lan , Bo Zhang , Ke Lin , Dandan Miao , Huiru He , Jiantao Ye , Chen Zhang , Yan-fu Li

Gaussian process (GP) priors are non-parametric generative models with appealing modelling properties for Bayesian inference: they can model non-linear relationships through noisy observations, have closed-form expressions for training and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-01-31 Gonzalo Rios

This paper introduces warped Gaussian processes (WGP) regression in remote sensing applications. WGP models output observations as a parametric nonlinear transformation of a GP. The parameters of such prior model are then learned via…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-12-23 Anna Mateo-Sanchis , Jordi Muñoz-Marí , Adrián Pérez-Suay , Gustau Camps-Valls

Parameter identification and comparison of dynamical systems is a challenging task in many fields. Bayesian approaches based on Gaussian process regression over time-series data have been successfully applied to infer the parameters of a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-03-04 Philippe Wenk , Alkis Gotovos , Stefan Bauer , Nico Gorbach , Andreas Krause , Joachim M. Buhmann

State-space models are successfully used in many areas of science, engineering and economics to model time series and dynamical systems. We present a fully Bayesian approach to inference \emph{and learning} (i.e. state estimation and system…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-12-18 Roger Frigola , Fredrik Lindsten , Thomas B. Schön , Carl E. Rasmussen

In this paper, we propose a novel Gaussian process-based moving horizon estimation (MHE) framework for unknown nonlinear systems. On the one hand, we approximate the system dynamics by the posterior means of the learned Gaussian processes…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-07-01 Tobias M. Wolff , Victor G. Lopez , Matthias A. Müller

Gaussian Processes (GPs) are expressive models for capturing signal statistics and expressing prediction uncertainty. As a result, the robotics community has gathered interest in leveraging these methods for inference, planning, and…

Robotics · Computer Science 2023-08-29 Francesco Crocetti , Jeffrey Mao , Alessandro Saviolo , Gabriele Costante , Giuseppe Loianno