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We present results about financial market observables, specifically returns and traded volumes. They are obtained within the current nonextensive statistical mechanical framework based on the entropy $S_{q}=k\frac{1-\sum\limits_{i=1}^{W}…
This paper studies the mixing time of certain adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms. Under some regularity conditions, we show that the convergence rate of Importance Resampling MCMC (IRMCMC) algorithm, measured in terms of the total…
Monte Carlo Approaches for calculating Value-at-Risk (VaR) are powerful tools widely used by financial risk managers across the globe. However, they are time consuming and sometimes inaccurate. In this paper, a fast and accurate Monte Carlo…
This work is devoted to convergence analysis of an exponential integrator scheme for semi-discretization in time of nonlinear stochastic wave equation. A unified framework is first set forth, which covers important cases of additive and…
In this study I briefly illustrate application of the Gaussian mixtures to approximate empirical distributions of financial indices (DAX, Dow Jones, Nikkei, RTSI, S&P 500). The resulting distributions illustrate very high quality of…
The use of stochastic models, in effect piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMP), has become increasingly popular especially for the modeling of chemical reactions and cell biophysics. Yet, exact simulation methods, for the…
In this article, the long-term behavior of the stock market index of the New York Stock Exchange is studied, for the period 1950 to 2013. Specifically, the CRSP Value-Weighted and CRSP Equal-Weighted index are analyzed in terms of market…
We investigate the relative market efficiency in financial market data, using the approximate entropy(ApEn) method for a quantification of randomness in time series. We used the global foreign exchange market indices for 17 countries during…
Motivated by predicting intraday trading volume curves, we consider two spatio-temporal autoregressive models for matrix time series, in which each column may represent daily trading volume curve of one asset, and each row captures…
Weak form of the Efficiency Market Hypothesis (EMH) excludes predictions of future market movements from historical data and makes the technical analysis (TA) out of law. However the technical analysis is widely used by traders and…
We propose a new approach, termed Realized Risk Measures (RRM), to estimate Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) using high-frequency financial data. It extends the Realized Quantile (RQ) approach proposed by Dimitriadis and…
We prove the large deviation principle for several entropy and cross entropy estimators based on return times and waiting times on shift spaces over finite alphabets. We consider shift-invariant probability measures satisfying some…
The use of improved covariance matrix estimators as an alternative to the sample estimator is considered an important approach for enhancing portfolio optimization. Here we empirically compare the performance of 9 improved covariance…
In finance, the weak form of the Efficient Market Hypothesis asserts that historic stock price and volume data cannot inform predictions of future prices. In this paper we show that, to the contrary, future intra-day stock prices could be…
In recent years, quantitative investment methods combined with artificial intelligence have attracted more and more attention from investors and researchers. Existing related methods based on the supervised learning are not very suitable…
We develop an envelope model for joint mean and covariance regression in the large $p$, small $n$ setting. In contrast to existing envelope methods, which improve mean estimates by incorporating estimates of the covariance structure, we…
Adding inequality constraints (e.g. boundedness, monotonicity, convexity) into Gaussian processes (GPs) can lead to more realistic stochastic emulators. Due to the truncated Gaussianity of the posterior, its distribution has to be…
Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) are widely used in the financial sector to measure the market risk and manage the extreme market movement. The recent link between the quantile score function and the Asymmetric Laplace…
There are two possible ways of interpreting the seemingly stochastic nature of financial markets: the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) and a set of stylized facts that drive the behavior of the markets. We show evidence for some of the…
Grasping the historical volatility of stock market indices and accurately estimating are two of the major focuses of those involved in the financial securities industry and derivative instruments pricing. This paper presents the results of…