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Motivated by a recent literature on the double-descent phenomenon in machine learning, we consider highly over-parameterized models in causal inference, including synthetic control with many control units. In such models, there may be so…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-10-16 Jann Spiess , Guido Imbens , Amar Venugopal

The "double descent" risk curve was proposed to qualitatively describe the out-of-sample prediction accuracy of variably-parameterized machine learning models. This article provides a precise mathematical analysis for the shape of this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-22 Mikhail Belkin , Daniel Hsu , Ji Xu

Learning rate schedule has a major impact on the performance of deep learning models. Still, the choice of a schedule is often heuristical. We aim to develop a precise understanding of the effects of different learning rate schedules and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-25 Guillaume Leclerc , Aleksander Madry

Extensive empirical evidence reveals that, for a wide range of different learning methods and datasets, the risk curve exhibits a double-descent (DD) trend as a function of the model size. In a recent paper [Zeyu,Kammoun,Thrampoulidis,2019]…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-02-03 Ganesh Kini , Christos Thrampoulidis

A major challenge in understanding the generalization of deep learning is to explain why (stochastic) gradient descent can exploit the network architecture to find solutions that have good generalization performance when using high capacity…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-02-12 Yifan Wu , Barnabas Poczos , Aarti Singh

The double descent phenomenon, which deviates from the traditional bias-variance trade-off theory, attracts considerable research attention; however, the mechanism of its occurrence is not fully understood. On the other hand, in the study…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-03-05 Shun Iwase , Shuya Takahashi , Nakamasa Inoue , Rio Yokota , Ryo Nakamura , Hirokatsu Kataoka

Double descent is a phenomenon of over-parameterized statistical models such as deep neural networks which have a re-descending property in their risk function. As the complexity of the model increases, risk exhibits a U-shaped region due…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-16 Nick Polson , Vadim Sokolov

Model complexity is a fundamental problem in deep learning. In this paper we conduct a systematic overview of the latest studies on model complexity in deep learning. Model complexity of deep learning can be categorized into expressive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-04 Xia Hu , Lingyang Chu , Jian Pei , Weiqing Liu , Jiang Bian

We observe a novel 'multiple-descent' phenomenon during the training process of LSTM, in which the test loss goes through long cycles of up and down trend multiple times after the model is overtrained. By carrying out asymptotic stability…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-27 Wenbo Wei , Nicholas Chong Jia Le , Choy Heng Lai , Ling Feng

The risk of overparameterized models, in particular deep neural networks, is often double-descent shaped as a function of the model size. Recently, it was shown that the risk as a function of the early-stopping time can also be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-06 Fatih Furkan Yilmaz , Reinhard Heckel

We study the performance of transformers as a function of the number of repetitions of training examples with algorithmically generated datasets. On three problems of mathematics: the greatest common divisor, modular multiplication, and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-10 François Charton , Julia Kempe

Additional training of a deep learning model can cause negative effects on the results, turning an initially positive sample into a negative one (degradation). Such degradation is possible in real-world use cases due to the diversity of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-19 Akihito Yoshii , Susumu Tokumoto , Fuyuki Ishikawa

Deep double descent is one of the key phenomena underlying the generalization capability of deep learning models. In this study, epoch-wise double descent, which is delayed generalization following overfitting, was empirically investigated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-14 Tomoki Kubo , Ryuken Uda , Yusuke Iida

We study the generalization behavior of transfer learning of deep neural networks (DNNs). We adopt the overparameterization perspective -- featuring interpolation of the training data (i.e., approximately zero train error) and the double…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-13 Yehuda Dar , Lorenzo Luzi , Richard G. Baraniuk

Recent studies have uncovered intriguing phenomena in deep learning, such as grokking, double descent, and emergent abilities in large language models, which challenge human intuition and are crucial for a deeper understanding of neural…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-27 Yufei Huang , Shengding Hu , Xu Han , Zhiyuan Liu , Maosong Sun

Since hardware resources are limited, the objective of training deep learning models is typically to maximize accuracy subject to the time and memory constraints of training and inference. We study the impact of model size in this setting,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2020-06-24 Zhuohan Li , Eric Wallace , Sheng Shen , Kevin Lin , Kurt Keutzer , Dan Klein , Joseph E. Gonzalez

We discuss methods for visualizing neural network decision boundaries and decision regions. We use these visualizations to investigate issues related to reproducibility and generalization in neural network training. We observe that changes…

A probability model exhibits instability if small changes in a data outcome result in large, and often unanticipated, changes in probability. This instability is a property of the probability model, given by a distributional form and a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-11-18 Andee Kaplan , Daniel Nordman , Stephen Vardeman

Most investigations into double descent have focused on supervised models while the few works studying self-supervised settings find a surprising lack of the phenomenon. These results imply that double descent may not exist in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-18 Alisia Lupidi , Yonatan Gideoni , Dulhan Jayalath

As neural networks continue to grow in size but datasets might not, it is vital to understand how much performance improvement can be expected: is it more important to scale network size or data volume? Thus, neural network scaling laws,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-10 Akhilan Boopathy , Ila Fiete