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Echo State Networks (ESN) are a type of Recurrent Neural Network that yields promising results in representing time series and nonlinear dynamic systems. Although they are equipped with a very efficient training procedure, Reservoir…
Understanding current global climate requires an understanding of trends both in Earth's atmospheric temperature and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a characteristic large-scale distribution of warm water in the tropical Pacific…
The spatiotemporal variation in tropical air-sea interaction is investigated by applying a simple model that considers the fundamental dynamics in tropical oceans. The model decomposes sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) variation into a…
El Ni\~{n}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the significant climate phenomena, which appears periodically in the tropic Pacific. The intermediate coupled ocean-atmosphere Zebiak-Cane (ZC) model is the first and classical one designed…
The El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant driver of interannual global climate variability and can lead to extreme weather events such as droughts or flooding. Recently, we have developed several statistical approaches for…
Predicting sea surface temperature (SST) within the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) region has been extensively studied due to its significant influence on global temperature and precipitation patterns. Statistical models such as…
This thesis examines the empirical mode decomposition (EMD), a method for decomposing multicomponent signals, from a modern, both theoretical and practical, perspective. The motivation is to further formalize the concept and develop new…
Forecasting the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been a subject of vigorous research due to the important role of the phenomenon in climate dynamics and its worldwide socioeconomic impacts. Over the past decades, numerous models for…
In this paper we present a mathematical model of the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD). Although EMD is a powerful tool for signal processing, the algorithm itself lacks an appropriate theoretical basis. The interpolation and iteration…
In this article, we present a mathematical theory of the Walker circulation of the large-scale atmosphere over the tropics. This study leads to a new metastable state oscillation theory for the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a typical…
The response of a low-frequency mode of climate variability, El Ni{\~n}o-Southern Oscillation, to stochastic forcing is studied in a high-dimensional model of intermediate complexity, the fully-coupled Cane-Zebiak model [ZC87], from the…
The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the most prominent interannual climate phenomena. An early and reliable ENSO forecasting remains a crucial goal, due to its serious implications for economy, society, and ecosystem. Despite…
Understanding multi-decadal variability is an essential goal of climate dynamics. For example, the recent phenomenon referred to as the "global warming hiatus" may reflect a coupling to an intrinsic, pre-industrial, multi-decadal…
Understanding ENSO dynamics has tremendously improved over the past decades. However, one aspect still poorly understood or represented in conceptual models is the ENSO diversity in spatial pattern, peak intensity, and temporal evolution.…
The El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) behavior can be effectively modeled as a response to a 2nd-order Mathieu/Hill differential equation with periodic coefficients describing sloshing of a volume of water. The forcing of the equation…
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the dominant mode of atmospheric variability over the North Atlantic sector, influencing temperature and precipitation across Europe. While the NAO's impact on North Atlantic sea surface temperatures…
Internal modes of climate variability, such as El Ni\~no and the North Atlantic Oscillation, can have strong influences upon distant weather patterns, effects that are referred to as "teleconnections". The extent to which anthropogenic…
The accurate long-term forecasting of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is still one of the biggest challenges in climate science. While it is true that short-to medium-range performance has been improved significantly using the…
Herein I propose a multi-scale dynamical analysis to facilitate the physical interpretation of tide gauge records. The technique uses graphical diagrams. It is applied to six secular-long tide gauge records representative of the world…
Accurate long-range forecasting of the El \Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is vital for global climate prediction and disaster risk management. Yet, limited understanding of ENSO's physical mechanisms constrains both numerical and deep…