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We study rare events in networks with both internal and external noise, and develop a general formalism for analyzing rare events that combines pair-quenched techniques and large-deviation theory. The probability distribution, shape, and…

Physics and Society · Physics 2018-02-27 J. Hindes , I. B. Schwartz

Rhythm is ubiquitous in human culture and in nature, but hard to capture in all its complexity. A key dimension of rhythm, integer ratio categories occur when the relationship between temporal intervals can be expressed as small-integer…

Applications · Statistics 2025-06-23 Yannick Jadoul , Tommaso Tufarelli , Chloé Coissac , Marco Gamba , Andrea Ravignani

We propose a Bayesian inference approach for static Origin-Destination (OD)-estimation in large-scale networked transit systems. The approach finds posterior distribution estimates of the OD-coefficients, which describe the relative…

Applications · Statistics 2021-05-28 Steffen O. P. Blume , Francesco Corman , Giovanni Sansavini

By expressing prior distributions as general stochastic processes, nonparametric Bayesian methods provide a flexible way to incorporate prior knowledge and constrain the latent structure in statistical inference. The Indian buffet process…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-05-21 Mengjie Chen , Chao Gao , Hongyu Zhao

Background: Continuous traits evolution of a group of taxa that are correlated through a phylogenetic tree is commonly modelled using parametric stochastic differential equations to represent deterministic change of trait through time,…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2026-04-03 Bayu Brahmantio , Krzysztof Bartoszek , Etka Yapar

We propose a new data-augmentation strategy for fully Bayesian inference in models with binomial likelihoods. The approach appeals to a new class of Polya-Gamma distributions, which are constructed in detail. A variety of examples are…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-20 Nicholas G. Polson , James G. Scott , Jesse Windle

Understanding human mobility is important for the development of intelligent mobile service robots as it can provide prior knowledge and predictions of human distribution for robot-assisted activities. In this paper, we propose a…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2016-06-29 Bo Tang , Chao Jiang , Haibo He , Yi Guo

We present a comprehensive evaluation of pretrained speech embedding systems for the detection of dysarthric speech using existing accessible data. Dysarthric speech datasets are often small and can suffer from recording biases as well as…

We consider nonparametric Bayesian estimation of a probability density $p$ based on a random sample of size $n$ from this density using a hierarchical prior. The prior consists, for instance, of prior weights on the regularity of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-09-29 Subhashis Ghosal , Jüri Lember , Aad van der Vaart

In this paper, we develop a graphical modeling framework for the inference of networks across multiple sample groups and data types. In medical studies, this setting arises whenever a set of subjects, which may be heterogeneous due to…

Probabilistic linear discriminant analysis (PLDA) has been widely used in open-set verification tasks, such as speaker verification. A potential issue of this model is that the training set often contains limited number of classes, which…

Sound · Computer Science 2021-11-25 Jiao Han , Yunqi Cai , Lantian Li , Guanyu Li , Dong Wang

A quality-Bayesian approach, combining the direct sampling method and the Bayesian inversion, is proposed to reconstruct the locations and intensities of the unknown acoustic sources using partial data. First, we extend the direct sampling…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-04-10 Zhaoxing Li , Yanfang Liu , Jiguang Sun , Liwei Xu

A Bayesian treatment of latent directed graph structure for non-iid data is provided where each child datum is sampled with a directed conditional dependence on a single unknown parent datum. The latent graph structure is assumed to lie in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-06-18 Tony S. Jebara

The ongoing replication crisis in science has increased interest in the methodology of replication studies. We propose a novel Bayesian analysis approach using power priors: The likelihood of the original study's data is raised to the power…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-28 Samuel Pawel , Frederik Aust , Leonhard Held , Eric-Jan Wagenmakers

Phoneme frequency distributions exhibit robust statistical regularities across languages, including exponential-tailed rank-frequency patterns and a negative relationship between phonemic inventory size and the relative entropy of the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-03-11 Fermín Moscoso del Prado Martín , Suchir Salhan

This paper develops an improved surrogate data test to show experimental evidence, for all the simple vowels of US English, for both male and female speakers, that Gaussian linear prediction analysis, a ubiquitous technique in current…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2019-10-23 Max Little , Patrick E. McSharry , Irene M. Moroz , Stephen J. Roberts

Crowdsourcing has emerged as an effective means for performing a number of machine learning tasks such as annotation and labelling of images and other data sets. In most early settings of crowdsourcing, the task involved classification,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-03 Desmond Cai , Duc Thien Nguyen , Shiau Hong Lim , Laura Wynter

This article is a review of theoretical advances in the research field of algebraic geometry and Bayesian statistics in the last two decades. Many statistical models and learning machines which contain hierarchical structures or latent…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-11-21 Sumio Watanabe

The counterfactual distribution models the effect of the treatment in the untreated group. While most of the work focuses on the expected values of the treatment effect, one may be interested in the whole counterfactual distribution or…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-11-04 Diego Martinez-Taboada , Dino Sejdinovic

We revisit logistic regression and its nonlinear extensions, including multilayer feedforward neural networks, by showing that these classifiers can be viewed as converting input or higher-level features into Dempster-Shafer mass functions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-13 Thierry Denoeux